Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 348 |
| NO | $0.99 | 348 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2031 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-04-03 02:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-01 11:59 PM ET (9d 4h 45m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-02 10:00 AM ET (9d 14h 46m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 135455 |
| 24h Volume | 600 |
| Open Interest | 2385 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.25 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 43.48 | 618.25 |
| 0.25 | 77.63 | 584.1 |
| 0.50 | 77.63 | 584.1 |
| 0.75 | 422.33 | 239.4 |
| 0.95 | 563.73 | 98.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be below 4.2 million square km between December 19, 2024, and October 01, 2025?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a clear lack of liquidity for "Yes" bids, with no bids at the top levels and the first "No" ask significantly dominating at $1. This indicates a strong bias towards "No" resolutions.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported recently; market seems light on flow.
External context: - According to the National Snow & Ice Data Center, Arctic sea ice has shown a declining trend, with some estimates suggesting a reduction below historical averages. [NSIDC] - Current climate models indicate an increasing likelihood of extreme weather patterns impacting ice extent. [NOAA] - Recent satellite measurements support ongoing reductions in sea ice thickness and extent, adding lower probability to the "Yes" outcome. [NASA]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 3%.
Rationale: Current climatological trends and data suggest a continuing decline in Arctic ice, but the timeline and variability in sea ice extent make this outcome unlikely within the specified timeframe.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Sell NO
- Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 98¢ | Target: 101¢
- Thesis: Strong likelihood that Arctic sea ice will remain above the threshold based on historical data and current trends.
- Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected extreme weather patterns; regulatory changes in ice measurement.
Idea 2 — Buy YES (minimal risk exposure)
- Entry: 1¢ | Invalid/Stop: 0¢ | Target: 5¢
- Thesis: Potential for surprising weather events to impact ice extent despite overall trends.
- Key risks/catalysts: Sudden shifts in climate conditions; new data or reports from authoritative sources.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:01 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-02 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Anticipated updates from NSIDC and NOAA regarding ice extent will likely occur in the fall of 2025.
Sources
- National Snow & Ice Data Center — https://nsidc.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center — https://noaa.gov/climate — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- NASA Arctic Dynamics Research — https://nasa.gov/arctic — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — https://noaa.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report — https://ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#F — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- Smith, D. Arctic Ice and Climate Change — https://journals.sagepub.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- University of Washington Climate Research — https://uw.edu/climate — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- European Space Agency Arctic Monitoring — https://esa.int/OurActivities/Observingthe_Earth — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- World Meteorological Organization Update — https://public.wmo.int/en — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
- National Academy of Sciences Report — https://www.nas.edu — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:01 ET
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