Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 56494 |
| NO | $0.99 | 56494 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 56494 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 9h 0m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 9h 0m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11890670 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 56554 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 564.94 | 118613.15 |
| 0.25 | 1889.25 | 117288.84 |
| 0.50 | 2119.86 | 117058.23 |
| 0.75 | 2975.58 | 116202.51 |
| 0.95 | 19899.35 | 99278.74 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% |
Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: No bid levels dominate with substantial liquidity, notably a significant size of 78,999 contracts at 1¢; little top-end competition exists for YES side.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity; liquidity remains at 11,890,670 with open interest at 56,554 contracts.
External context:
- Carlos Narvaez has yet to make his MLB debut, negatively impacting his perceived likelihood of winning the award (source: MLB.com).
- Historical trends indicate that early-season performance significantly affects Rookie of the Year outcomes, often favoring those with substantial MLB playing time (source: Baseball Almanac).
- Rookie statistics from recent seasons show that high performance in the first half translates to increased winning probabilities (source: Fangraphs).
- Industry sentiment is presently bearish towards Narvaez due to a lack of playing opportunities (source: ESPN).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 0.5%.
Rationale: Given Narvaez's lack of MLB experience and recent historical data favoring players with established roles, the likelihood of him winning the award appears minimal.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO Market
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: Market inefficiencies have inflated the NO price given existing uncertainties surrounding Narvaez's debut.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected call-up to MLB lineup, significant pre-season performance.
Idea 2 — Long YES Market
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.02 | Target: $0.10
Thesis: With a low price point, potential upside exists if prevailing market sentiment shifts.
Key risks/catalysts: Impact of spring training performance.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:00 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Player performance data updates throughout the MLB season.
Sources
- MLB.com — MLB Rookies Overview — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- Baseball Almanac — ROTY Historical Trends — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- Fangraphs — Rookie Performance Metrics — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- ESPN — Player Projections and Sentiment — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- [Additional sources can be added following the same format.]
Technical Indicators
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