Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.05 | $0.05 | 5.0¢ | 4.88% |
| NO | $0.95 | $0.97 | $1.0 | 5.0¢ | 95.24% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.05 | 2060 |
| NO | $0.95 | 2060 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.05 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.97 | 0.0 | 2060 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.050 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.12 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.88 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 8h 59m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 8h 59m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11805442 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 16905 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 118040.12 |
| 0.25 | 714.0 | 117326.12 |
| 0.50 | 1093.61 | 116946.51 |
| 0.75 | 1953.41 | 116086.71 |
| 0.95 | 18870.16 | 99169.96 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 5% | YES/NO spreads: 5¢ / 5¢ | Overround (asks): 5% |
Underround (bids): 5%.
Orderbook skew: Deeply skewed towards "NO," with a notable size of 78,999 contracts at a 1¢ ask.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity reported, indicating a lack of market engagement.
External context:
- Roman Anthony has shown consistent performance metrics but lacks significant media coverage. (Source: USA Today)
- Competitors such as Gunnar Henderson and Masyn Winn present strong cases, adding pressure. (Source: MLB.com)
- Historical ROY winners often come from teams with playoff contention, impacting visibility. (Source: Baseball Reference)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 4%.
Rationale: Despite evident talent, Anthony's positioning in nominations lacks robust supporting narratives compared to top competitors, leading to a conservative probability estimate.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Shorting NO position
Entry: $0.95 | Invalid/Stop: $0.99 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: Limited upside in prevailing market sentiment suggests downward pressure on NO prices.
Key risks/catalysts: If Anthony gains unexpected media coverage or playoff contention boosts visibility.
Idea 2 — Trading YES position
Entry: $0.05 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.25
Thesis: Given low visibility, a sudden spike in media attention could increase market interest.
Key risks/catalysts: Performance drops or competitors overshadowing Anthony.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: MLB postseason standings updates in October.
Sources
- USA Today — www.usatoday.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- MLB.com — www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Baseball Reference — www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- ESPN Analytics — www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- FanGraphs — www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- The Athletic — theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Sports Illustrated — www.si.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- CBS Sports — www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Yahoo Sports — sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- New York Times — www.nytimes.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
Technical Indicators
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