Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.46 | $0.46 | 46.0¢ | 37.4% |
| NO | $0.54 | $0.77 | $1.0 | 46.0¢ | 67.31% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.46 | 300 |
| NO | $0.54 | 300 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.46 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.77 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.460 |
| Band Width | 0.460 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -8.6 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -37.4 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 5 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 8h 57m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 8h 57m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10453228 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 104718.88 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 104718.88 |
| 0.50 | 231.53 | 104487.35 |
| 0.75 | 1091.33 | 103627.55 |
| 0.95 | 18186.7 | 86532.18 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 46% | YES/NO spreads: 46¢ / 54¢ | Overround (asks): 46% | Underround (bids): 46%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows no substantial YES orders, indicating a significant bias towards the NO side, with the largest NO order at 69,999 contracts at $0.01.
Recent prints: There has been no notable trade activity in the last 24 hours, reflecting a lack of liquidity.
External context: - Shane Smith has had a strong debut season, contributing significantly to his team with impressive statistics (source: MLB Stats). - Competition for the AL Rookie of the Year includes several strong candidates, potentially diluting Smith’s chances (source: ESPN). - Recent voter sentiment shows a preference for more well-rounded players (source: Baseball Writers Association). - Historical trends indicate odds can shift rapidly in the final weeks before the award (source: FanGraphs).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 30%.
Rationale: Although Shane Smith has shown potential, the strong historical competition coupled with low marketplace liquidity suggests a reduced likelihood of him winning.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.54 | Invalid/Stop: $0.60 | Target: $0.40
Thesis: Implied market biases towards YES reflect an overvaluation of Smith's chances.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden surge in media attention or performance shifts from Smith, new data releases regarding player statistics.
Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: $0.46 | Invalid/Stop: $0.40 | Target: $0.70
Thesis: Current prices reflect skepticism; if Smith continues his strong performance, this could narrow.
Key risks/catalysts: Strong performances by competitors, injury issues impacting Smith’s playing time.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00
Known release windows: Post-season player statistics, media narratives shaping public perception, and MLB awards voting deadlines.
Sources
- MLB Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Baseball Writers Association — https://www.bwaw.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Kalshi Orderbook — https://www.kalshi.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Market Trends in MLB Awards — https://www.baseballanalytics.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- AL Rookie of the Year Voter Behavior — https://www.baseballprospectus.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Shift in Odds Report — https://www.sportsbookreview.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Player Performance Metrics — https://www.baseballreference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- Latest Trades Insight — https://www.thestreet.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
Technical Indicators
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