Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 300 |
| NO | $0.99 | 300 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 300 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 10h 29m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 10h 29m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10429424 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 3.0 | 104428.29 |
| 0.25 | 3.0 | 104428.29 |
| 0.50 | 235.42 | 104195.87 |
| 0.75 | 1091.14 | 103340.15 |
| 0.95 | 18007.89 | 86423.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 1% |
Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The market shows significant depth in NO bids, with the largest size at 69,999 contracts for a 1¢ ask. NO offers dominate the orderbook, indicating a strong belief that Trey Sweeney will not win the award.
Recent prints: No recent trading activity or notable flow observed.
External context:
- Trey Sweeney's performance metrics remain modest compared to peers (MLB stats).
- The likelihood of winning the Rookie of the Year is heavily influenced by team performance and media narratives (source: MLB.com).
- Current consensus from sports analytics shows lower odds for Sweeney compared to competitors (statistical reports).
- Recent historical trends suggest that prior winners have significantly outperformed average rookie statistics (source: ESPN).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Given the extensive NO orderbook and the performance data on competing rookies, Sweeney faces long odds for the award, despite the low market prices.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — SHORT NO
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.02 | Target: 0.005
Thesis: Low implied probability indicates market skepticism about Sweeney’s chances.
Key risks/catalysts: Market sentiment change, sudden media spotlight on Sweeney, or a surge in performance metrics.
Idea 2 — LONG YES
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.005 | Target: 0.05
Thesis: If a significant event boosts awareness or performance, the price may spike.
Key risks/catalysts: Major media coverage, significant personal performance metrics.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00.
Known release windows: MLB award nominations (early November).
Sources
- MLB Rookies Performance Metrics — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- MLB.com: Rookie of the Year Insights — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- ESPN: Historical Rookie of the Year Trends — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Statcast Player Comparisons — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Baseball Prospectus: Rookie Evaluations — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Fangraphs: Performance Analysis — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Sporting News: Awards Predictions — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Yahoo Sports: Rookie Rankings — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- MLB Trade Rumors: Rookie Watch — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Minor League Baseball Reports — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
Technical Indicators
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