Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 12622 |
| NO | $0.99 | 12622 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 12622 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 10h 33m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 10h 33m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11859119 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1145 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 126.22 | 118626.47 |
| 0.25 | 1466.79 | 117285.9 |
| 0.50 | 1697.4 | 117055.29 |
| 0.75 | 2557.2 | 116195.49 |
| 0.95 | 19473.95 | 99278.74 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The market shows a significant imbalance with no active bids for “YES” (0.0) and predominant sizes on the NO side, indicating a strong belief that Will Warren will not win the award.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity has been recorded, indicating a low liquidity environment.
External context: - Will Warren's season performance remains inconsistent, affecting his candidacy for the award (source: MLB Stats). - Historical analyses suggest that candidates with higher batting averages and home runs have better chances, and Warren falls below historical thresholds (source: Baseball Reference). - Competitive candidates for the Rookie of the Year are outperforming him statistically, further tilting market support against Warren (source: ESPN). - Fan and analyst sentiment strongly favor other rookies based on recent metrics and expert analysis (source: Rotowire).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Given the overwhelming market sentiment against Will Warren's candidacy and his below-average performance metrics compared to other top contenders, the likelihood of Warren winning is exceedingly low.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO - Entry: Sell NO at $1.00 - Invalid/Stop: $1.01 - Target: $0.90 - Thesis: Price reflects an unrealistic probability given Warren's performance metrics. - Key risks/catalysts: Market reaction to any sudden performance improvement, upcoming games, or notable injuries to competitors.
Idea 2 — Buy YES (speculative) - Entry: Buy YES at $0.01 - Invalid/Stop: $0.00 - Target: $0.05 - Thesis: In highly unpredictable markets, there’s always a small chance of unexpected events. - Key risks/catalysts: Dramatic improvement in Warren's performance, favorable media narratives.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Player performance metrics in next week’s series.
Sources
- MLB Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:00 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:05 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:10 ET
- Rotowire — https://www.rotowire.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:15 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:20 ET
- Fangraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:25 ET
- Bleacher Report — https://www.bleacherreport.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:30 ET
- Sports Illustrated — https://www.si.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:35 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:40 ET
- Yahoo Sports — https://sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 15:45 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →