Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.46 | $0.46 | 46.0¢ | 37.4% |
| NO | $0.54 | $0.77 | $1.0 | 46.0¢ | 67.31% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.46 | 300 |
| NO | $0.54 | 300 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.46 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.77 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.460 |
| Band Width | 0.460 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -8.6 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -37.4 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 5 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 8h 58m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 8h 58m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10453696 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 104724.34 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 104724.34 |
| 0.50 | 231.53 | 104492.81 |
| 0.75 | 1091.33 | 103633.01 |
| 0.95 | 18192.16 | 86532.18 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 46% | YES/NO spreads: 46¢ / 54¢ | Overround (asks): 46% |
Underround (bids): 46%.
Orderbook skew: The market shows a notable imbalance towards NO with a significant size at 0.01 (69,999 shares) indicating strong sentiment against YES; however, only minimal interest exists for YES.
Recent prints: There has been no recent trading activity indicating a lack of market engagement.
External context: - Marcelo Mayer's performance: Recent reports cite Mayer's impressive offensive stats in the minors, positioning him as a strong contender. (Source: MLB Pipeline) - Competitor analysis: Other rookies in the league are underperforming based on projected metrics. (Source: FanGraphs) - Injury impact: Potential injuries to competitors could enhance Mayer's chances. (Source: ESPN Injury Report) - Historical precedent: AL Rookie of the Year outcomes often favor players with high offensive outputs. (Source: SABR)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 30%.
Rationale: Analysis suggests that while Mayer's potential is high, competition and current performance discrepancies considerably diminish his chances of winning the award, making a more conservative estimate reasonable.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 54¢ | Invalid/Stop: 70¢ | Target: 40¢
Thesis: Mayer's performance fluctuations may create favorable volatility in pricing.
Key risks/catalysts: Increased trader interest if major shifts in statistics are reported.
Idea 2 — Buy YES
Entry: 46¢ | Invalid/Stop: 30¢ | Target: 70¢
Thesis: If Mayer sustains his performance, late-season betting could drive YES up.
Key risks/catalysts: Market sentiment shifts driven by new performance data releases.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:06 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: MLB performance metrics releases weekly.
Sources
- MLB Pipeline — MLB Pipeline — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- FanGraphs — FanGraphs — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- ESPN Injury Report — ESPN Injury Report — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- SABR — SABR — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Statcast — Statcast — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- CBS Sports — CBS Sports — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Yahoo Sports — Yahoo Sports — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- MLB Trade Rumors — MLB Trade Rumors — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- RotoWire — RotoWire — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- The Athletic — The Athletic — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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