Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 11068 |
| NO | $0.99 | 11068 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 11068 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 10h 34m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 10h 34m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11832266 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1724 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 110.68 | 118632.62 |
| 0.25 | 1564.62 | 117178.68 |
| 0.50 | 1793.85 | 116949.45 |
| 0.75 | 2649.57 | 116093.73 |
| 0.95 | 19573.34 | 99169.96 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 0¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook reflects a significant bias towards “No” with a notable depth at various price levels. Key levels include 78,999 contracts at $0.01, indicating strong resistance against the “Yes” market.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity was observed.
External context: - Jac Caglianone's 2025 season start has been promising, yet competition from other rookies remains high (source: MLB.com). - Historical performance of AL Rookies shows volatility in mid-season standings, implying risk for long-term bets (source: BaseballReference.com). - The typical resolution of this market trend indicates few rookies win consistently, impacting probability assessments (source: ESPN).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Despite initial enthusiasm for Caglianone, the low probability reflects steep competition and historically low rates of Rookie of the Year victories tied to current performances.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short "Yes" position
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.005
Thesis: Current pricing overestimates Caglianone's potential due to strong competition.
Key risks/catalysts: Changes in player performance, shifts in public sentiment, or injuries to competitors.
Idea 2 — Buy "No" position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Evidence suggests strong contention against Caglianone, reinforcing likelihood of a "No" outcome.
Key risks/catalysts: Shifts in team dynamics, performance spikes from leading candidates.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Updates on player performances, analyst predictions, and key game dates leading up to resolution.
Sources
- MLB.com — https://www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- BaseballReference.com — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
Technical Indicators
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