Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 1.98% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.04% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 5943 |
| NO | $0.98 | 5943 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 7943 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 8h 58m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 8h 58m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 12389753 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 100 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 188.86 | 123891.6 |
| 0.25 | 1145.06 | 122935.4 |
| 0.50 | 2562.34 | 121518.12 |
| 0.75 | 4641.31 | 119439.15 |
| 0.95 | 23178.06 | 100902.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% |
Underround (bids): 2.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows significant depth on the NO side, with the highest size at the bid level being 79,999 contracts at $0.01. There are limited positions for YES, indicating a strong bias towards the belief that Noah Cameron will not win.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed, indicating a lack of flow in this market.
External context: - Noah Cameron is a rookie player for a high-performing team, which could influence his visibility and award candidacy. - Current season statistics provide insight into player performance, with external metrics leaning toward established players for induction into the AL Rookie of the Year slot. - Market expectations for rookie performance historically show low resolutions for non-premier names, particularly in the early stages of their career.
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: While the current implied probability from the market suggests minimal belief in Cameron’s chances, data indicating standout performances from rookies can adjust perceptions. The low bid size showcases market skepticism, but increasing stats as the season progresses could shift sentiment.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.95
Thesis: Market underestimates rookie performance potential, might see a momentum shift.
Key risks/catalysts: Injuries to established players, mid-season call-up statistics could shift perceptions.
Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.00 | Target: $0.10
Thesis: Outsized rookie performances could drive the market's belief upward.
Key risks/catalysts: Comparisons with other rookies may dampen excitement; overall team performance can impact visibility.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Rookie performance updates, team game schedules, All-Star selections, and awards nominations.
Sources
- AL Rookie of the Year Candidates - ESPN — https://www.espn.com/mlb/rookie-of-the-year — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Historical Rookie Performance - MLB Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Team Performance Metrics - FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Rookie of the Year History - Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- MLB Rookie Statistics - CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/rookie-statistics — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- League Observations - The Athletic — https://www.theathletic.com/mlb — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Current AL Rookie Trends - Bleacher Report — https://www.bleacherreport.com/mlb — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Performance Review - MLB Network — https://www.mlb.com/network — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Rookie Highlights Analysis - Sports Illustrated — https://www.si.com/mlb — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- MLB Awards Forecast - Baseball America — https://www.baseballamerica.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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