Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 2652 |
| NO | $0.99 | 2652 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2652 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 10h 32m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 10h 32m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10477704 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 5 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 26.52 | 104751.41 |
| 0.25 | 26.52 | 104751.41 |
| 0.50 | 255.72 | 104522.21 |
| 0.75 | 1111.44 | 103666.49 |
| 0.95 | 18028.19 | 86749.74 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround(asks): 1.0% |
Underround(bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: No levels dominate the YES side, with all liquidity favoring NO options, suggesting market skepticism about Jack Leiter's candidacy.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity, indicating light market flow amidst current skepticism.
External context: - Jack Leiter is a promising prospect but has faced challenges in maintaining consistency. MLB Pipeline - Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET. - Current AL Rookie of the Year race is competitive, with several candidates showing stronger performance metrics. ESPN Stats - Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET. - Expect increased discussion about rookie candidacies as the season approaches its conclusion. Baseball Reference - Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET.
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Given the current performance landscape and the competitive nature of the AL Rookie race, the likelihood of Jack Leiter winning appears very low.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO position
Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 1.0¢ | Target: 95¢
Thesis: Market sentiment strongly favors Jack Leiter not winning, providing a short opportunity as skepticism seems overblown.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Performance improvements from Leiter.
- Surge in support from media-based narratives.
Idea 2 — Reverse position on YES
Entry: 1.0¢ | Invalid/Stop: 1.5¢ | Target: 2.0¢
Thesis: A contrary bet on Leiter based on potential unexpected late-season performance shifts market dynamics.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Positive performance metrics in upcoming games.
- Shifts in voter sentiment leading to unexpected outcomes.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:00 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): October 29, 2025, 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Key MLB performance data expected within the next few weeks as the season concludes.
Sources
- MLB Pipeline — https://www.mlb.com/pipeline — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- ESPN Stats — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Statcast Data — https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Yahoo Sports — https://sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- ESPN Player Stats — https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- MLB Trade Rumors — https://www.mlbtraderumors.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →