Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 17913 |
| NO | $0.99 | 17913 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 19211 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 10h 34m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 10h 34m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11844893 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 12681 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 205.09 | 118412.23 |
| 0.25 | 1547.42 | 117069.9 |
| 0.50 | 1776.65 | 116840.67 |
| 0.75 | 2632.37 | 115984.95 |
| 0.95 | 19556.14 | 99061.18 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1.0¢ / 1.0¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: Limited activity on the YES side; significant depth on the NO side with notable larger sizes at 0.01 (78,999 shares) and 0.02 (3,888 shares), indicating bearish sentiment.
Recent prints: No recent flow; current liquidity suggests inactivity or reluctance to trade.
External context:
- Jasson Dominguez, a highly touted prospect, has yet to make a significant impact in the MLB, leading to skepticism about his Rookie of the Year candidacy.
- Current AL Rookie of the Year candidates are generating favorable statistics, further diluting Dominguez's potential votes.
- Historical trends show that top prospects often struggle in their first seasons, decreasing win likelihood for Rookie awards.
(Source: MLB.com, September 2025)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1.5%
Rationale: Jasson Dominguez's lack of recent standout performances combined with a strong rookie class suggests minimal chance for winning the award this season.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short AL Rookie of the Year (Jasson Dominguez)
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.02 | Target: 0.005
Thesis: Market underestimates the depth of competition against Dominguez, who is unlikely to garner enough support to win.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Unexpected performances by Dominguez that could sway public opinion.
- Rising interest in betting markets could increase liquidity and shift prices unexpectedly.
Idea 2 — Long NO position
Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 0.95 | Target: 1.01
Thesis: Betting against Dominguez winning aligns with current market skepticism and favorable external context.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Major publicized endorsements could influence traders’ sentiments.
- Unexpected eligibility changes or market announcements that could modify the landscape of the competition.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:00 ET
Expected expiration (ET): October 29, 2025, 14:00 ET
Known release windows:
- Monthly MLB performance updates, including awards predictions, will be released through September.
Sources
- "Dominguez's Rising Star: How Jasson is Preparing for his MLB Debut" — MLB.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "AL Rookie of the Year Tracker" — ESPN — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "2025 MLB Rookie Class Performance Analytics" — BaseballAmerica — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "Historical Trends in Rookie of the Year Voting" — Statista — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "Predicting the AL Rookie of the Year: Insights & Odds" — SportsbookReview — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "Impact of Social Media on Rookie Awards" — RookieWatch — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "Fan Favorites: Who Will Win the 2025 Rookie of the Year Awards?" — CBS Sports — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "Jasson Dominguez: Rookie Outlook and Expectations" — MLBPipeline — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "AL Rookie of the Year Odds Analysis" — BettingPros — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- "Top Rookies to Watch in 2025" — Bleacher Report — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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