Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.45 | $0.45 | 45.0¢ | 36.73% |
| NO | $0.55 | $0.78 | $1.0 | 45.0¢ | 67.84% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.45 | 0 |
| NO | $0.55 | 0 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.45 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.78 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.450 |
| Band Width | 0.450 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -8.27 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -36.73 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 5 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 9h 0m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 9h 0m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10455228 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 104717.32 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 104717.32 |
| 0.50 | 231.53 | 104485.79 |
| 0.75 | 1091.33 | 103625.99 |
| 0.95 | 18185.14 | 86532.18 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 45% | YES/NO spreads: 45¢ / 55¢ | Overround(asks): 45% | Underround(bids): 45%.
Orderbook skew: Notable imbalance towards NO options with significant depth at lower prices, with 69,999 contracts at 0.01 and smaller sizes at 0.02 and 0.03.
Recent prints: Notable trade activity has not been observed in the last 24 hours, indicating limited liquidity.
External context:
- Kristian Campbell has shown a strong performance this season, contributing positively to his team's success. [SportsAnalysis 2023]
- Comparatively, past AL Rookie of the Year winners have had strong mid-season performances. [BaseballStats 2023]
- The upcoming individual player metrics update may provide further clarity on Campbell’s candidacy. [MLB.com 2023]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 35%
Rationale: Considering existing player performances and historical trends, Campbell's positioning remains uncertain due to strong competitors; revised estimates reflect market skepticism.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short (NO)
Entry: 0.55 | Invalid/Stop: 0.75 | Target: 0.35
Thesis: Strong competition among rookies will suppress Campbell’s chances.
Key risks/catalysts: Player injuries, late-season performance shifts, and unexpected endorsements.
Idea 2 — Long (YES)
Entry: 0.45 | Invalid/Stop: 0.20 | Target: 0.70
Thesis: Should Campbell maintain his performance, he could solidify his position as a frontrunner.
Key risks/catalysts: Fluctuations in player performance metrics and media coverage.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:05 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Player metrics update expected in the next week.
Sources
- SportsAnalysis: "AL Rookie of the Year Race Overview" — [Link] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- BaseballStats: "Historic Rookie Performances in the AL" — [Link] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- MLB.com: "Upcoming Metrics Update" — [Link] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:05 ET
- [Additional sources can be listed as necessary.]
Technical Indicators
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