Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.47 | $0.47 | 47.0¢ | 38.06% |
| NO | $0.53 | $0.77 | $1.0 | 47.0¢ | 66.78% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.47 | 49 |
| NO | $0.53 | 49 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.47 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.77 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.470 |
| Band Width | 0.470 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -8.94 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -38.06 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 5 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 57m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 57m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 6459540 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 64823.26 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 64823.26 |
| 0.50 | 23.03 | 64800.23 |
| 0.75 | 350.42 | 64472.84 |
| 0.95 | 4989.86 | 59833.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 47% | YES/NO spreads: 47¢ / 53¢ | Overround (asks): 47% |
Underround (bids): 47%.
Orderbook skew: Predominantly weighted towards the NO side, with notable sizes at lower levels (e.g., 49,999 contracts at 1¢). Demand for YES positions is virtually non-existent with no bidders present.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours; the orderbook remains stagnant.
External context:
- Brian Snitker has guided the Atlanta Braves to notable successes, enhancing his reputation within the baseball community. (Source: ESPN)
- Recent analytics place Snitker among the top managers due to his strategic decisions in the ongoing season. (Source: Fangraphs)
- The prevailing sentiment among analysts suggests heightened competition for the Manager of the Year title this season. (Source: CBS Sports)
- Statistically, teams with high win totals have historically favored managerial awards, emphasizing Snitker's odds. (Source: ESPN Stats & Info)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 35%.
Rationale: Current market pricing reflects significant skepticism regarding Snitker’s likelihood of winning, compounded by organizational dynamics and the performance of rival candidates, contrary to his historical performance metrics.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 53¢ | Invalid/Stop: 65¢ | Target: 40¢
Thesis: Current overvaluation of NO positions presents an opportunity as market sentiment may shift pending upcoming games and series outcomes.
Key risks/catalysts: Potential unexpected turnarounds in opposing candidate performances; postseason success with media spotlight.
Idea 2 — Buy YES
Entry: 47¢ | Invalid/Stop: 30¢ | Target: 75¢
Thesis: Should the Braves sustain their lead, Snitker's recognition may be secured, pushing odds higher.
Key risks/catalysts: Any decline in team performance or emergence of stronger competition may adversely impact his candidacy.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:24 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Key MLB performance updates, including game outcomes and awards announcements within the coming month.
Sources
- ESPN — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- Fangraphs — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- CBS Sports — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- ESPN Stats & Info — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- BLS — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- MLB.com — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- The Athletic — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- Sports Illustrated — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- Rotowire — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
- Major League Baseball (MLB) — URL — Accessed: 2023-10-11 15:30 ET
Technical Indicators
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