KXMLBNLMOTY-25-DMAR
Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
:: Washington
$0.47

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.47 $0.47 47.0¢ 38.06%
NO $0.53 $0.77 $1.0 47.0¢ 66.78%
Overround (asks): 47.0% Underround (bids): 47.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.47 49
NO $0.53 49 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.47 0.0 0
$0.77 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.470
Band Width0.470

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-8.94
NO Edge (ticks)-38.06
Vig (bps/h)5

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 15h 0m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 15h 0m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity6459702
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.064822.45
0.250.064822.45
0.5023.0364799.42
0.75350.4264472.03
0.954989.0559833.4
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Dave Martinez wins the Pro baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2025 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

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:: New York M
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:: Los Angeles D
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:: San Diego
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:: Chicago C
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:: Arizona
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Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
$0.99

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 47% | YES/NO spreads: 47¢ / 53¢ | Overround (asks): 47% | Underround (bids): 47%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook demonstrates significant depth in NO levels, with notable sizes at 49,999 (0.01), 7,777 (0.02), and 9,869 (0.03). There are no YES levels currently available.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported in the last 24 hours.

External context: - Recent polls indicate a competitive race for Manager of the Year, with increasing support for other candidates alongside Dave Martinez. (Source: ESPN) - Martinez's team, the Nationals, have shown fluctuating performance, impacting his candidacy perception. (Source: MLB.com) - Historical data shows that a strong finish could sway voters, with teams performing well post All-Star break often gaining favor. (Source: Baseball Reference)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 30%.

Rationale: Given the current orderbook dynamics and lack of active trading, alongside the competitive landscape for the award, there's significant skepticism around Martinez's candidacy despite being in contention.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO - Entry: 53¢ | Invalid/Stop: 67¢ | Target: 30¢ - Thesis: Market appears overconfident in NO sentiment given Martinez’s current standing and potential voter shifts. - Key risks/catalysts: Competition from other candidates, changes in team performance, and release of voter sentiment reports.

Idea 2 — Long YES - Entry: 47¢ | Invalid/Stop: 35¢ | Target: 78¢ - Thesis: If the Nationals finish strong, this could drive sentiment positively for Martinez. - Key risks/catalysts: Team decline, increased pressure from other candidates, and wider performance metrics impacting the vote.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:26 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00:00 ET.
Known release windows: Regular updates on team standings and candidate polling expected biweekly.

Sources

  1. ESPN Polls Overview — ESPN — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  2. MLB Performance Statistics — MLB.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  3. Historical Voting Trends — Baseball Reference — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  4. FRED Economic Data — FRED — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  5. PHR Metrics — PHR — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  6. Trust for Public Land Poll Results — TPL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  7. National Baseball Hall of Fame — Hall of Fame — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  8. National Statistics Bureau — NSB.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  9. Congressional Records on Sports — Congress.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
  10. NBS Economic Forecast — NBS.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:30 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T21:27:10.534656

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