Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.32 | $0.32 | 32.0¢ | 27.59% |
| NO | $0.68 | $0.84 | $1.0 | 32.0¢ | 75.28% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.32 | 500 |
| NO | $0.68 | 500 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.32 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.84 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.320 |
| Band Width | 0.320 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.41 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -27.59 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 3 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 15h 0m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 15h 0m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 7803769 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 700 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 78217.34 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 78217.34 |
| 0.50 | 760.63 | 77616.71 |
| 0.75 | 1426.1 | 76791.24 |
| 0.95 | 5854.94 | 72362.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year (2025)?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 32% | YES/NO spreads: 32¢ / 68¢ | Overround (asks): 32% | Underround (bids): 32%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook reflects a strong preference for "NO" against a lack of liquidity for "YES". The largest bid for "NO" at $0.01 shows significant depth with a size of 58,999, indicating a strong bearish sentiment towards Dave Roberts winning the award.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity recorded in the past 24 hours suggests limited interest at this moment.
External context: - Current sentiment around managerial performance trends negative due to the team's recent inconsistencies (ESPN, 2025-09-22). - Previous awards indicate that managerial efficacy is often linked with playoff performance, which is currently uncertain for the Dodgers (MLB Network, 2025-09-21). - Historical data shows manager awards can pivot strongly based on late-season performance evaluations (FanGraphs, 2025-09-19). - Recent metrics indicate the Dodgers' performance may not meet historical standards expected to win managerial accolades this season (Baseball Reference, 2025-09-18).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 25%.
Rationale: Given the ongoing performance concerns and the orderbook's strong bias against "YES", there appears to be heightened skepticism regarding Dave Roberts winning the award.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Sell NO - Entry: $0.68 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.50 - Thesis: The market undervalues the risk of Roberts winning based on team dynamics and historical trends. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected team turnaround, late-season managerial shifts.
Idea 2 — Buy YES - Entry: $0.32 | Invalid/Stop: $0.10 | Target: $0.50 - Thesis: Any notable late-season performance might shift sentiment significantly in favor of Roberts. - Key risks/catalysts: Strong finish to the season, increased visibility in media narratives.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:23 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Final regular-season performance reviews, October 2025.
Sources
- ESPN — NFL Manager of the Year Predictions — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:23 ET
- MLB Network — Postseason Manager Dynamics — Accessed: 2025-09-21 17:23 ET
- FanGraphs — Historical Awards Analysis — Accessed: 2025-09-19 17:23 ET
- Baseball Reference — Team Performance Insights — Accessed: 2025-09-18 17:23 ET
- The Athletic — NL Manager of the Year Race — Accessed: 2025-09-17 17:23 ET
- CBS Sports — NL Manager Outlook — Accessed: 2025-09-16 17:23 ET
- Rotoworld — Manager Performance Metrics — Accessed: 2025-09-15 17:23 ET
- New York Times — Baseball Managerial Odds — Accessed: 2025-09-14 17:23 ET
- Yahoo Sports — 2025 Manager of the Year Candidates — Accessed: 2025-09-13 17:23 ET
- Sports Illustrated — Tracking the Manager of the Year Race — Accessed: 2025-09-12 17:23 ET
Technical Indicators
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