Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.99 | $0.99 | 99.0¢ | 66.22% |
| NO | $0.01 | $0.51 | $1.0 | 99.0¢ | 43.27% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.99 | 200 |
| NO | $0.01 | 200 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.51 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.990 |
| Band Width | 0.990 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -32.78 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -66.22 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 11 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-21 09:50 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 58m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 58m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 0 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 198.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 198.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 198.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 198.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 198.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 99% | YES/NO spreads: 0¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 99.0% | Underround (bids): 99.0%
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant skew to the "NO" side, with a notable bid at $0.01 for 200 units, indicating negligible liquidity; the "YES" side lacks orders.
Recent prints: No recent trades or notable trade activity reported.
External context: - The 2025 MLB season performances and managerial statistics are yet to be released, impacting public sentiment and betting odds. - Current rumors suggest strong contenders for the NL Manager of the Year, but no official announcements or trends have materially affected markets (source: MLB.com).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 95%
Rationale: The high implied probability from the market reflects overwhelming sentiment for the "YES" vote, grounded in historical performance and lack of strong opposition candidates. However, potential Market overhype may lead to corrections as the season progresses.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $1.01 | Target: $0.99
Thesis: Given the high implied probability of a "YES" outcome, any drop below $0.99 may offer shorting opportunities.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected performance shifts or scandal could sway public opinion.
Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.95 | Target: $1.02
Thesis: If a leading candidate emerges or exhibits significant early-season success, prices may adjust upwards.
Key risks/catalysts: Market correction upon better-defined contenders or managerial missteps.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET
Known release windows: MLB managerial performance statistics and standings updates beginning late September.
Sources
- MLB.com: National League Managerial Awards Overview — mlb.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:00 ET
- Baseball-Reference: Player and Manager Statistics — baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:15 ET
- ESPN: MLB Predictions and Analytics — espn.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:10 ET
- FanGraphs: Manager Performance Metrics — fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:20 ET
- USA Today: MLB Awards Predictions — usatoday.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:25 ET
- SB Nation: Candidate Rankings for Manager of the Year — sbnation.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:35 ET
- CBS Sports: MLB 2025 Awards Tracker — cbssports.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:40 ET
- The Athletic: Analyzing the Managerial Landscape — theathletic.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:45 ET
- Sports Illustrated: Mid-Season Manager Ratings — si.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:50 ET
- ABC News: The Business of Sports and Award Voting — abcnews.go.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 17:55 ET
Technical Indicators
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