Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.47 | $0.47 | 47.0¢ | 38.06% |
| NO | $0.53 | $0.77 | $1.0 | 47.0¢ | 66.78% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.47 | 49 |
| NO | $0.53 | 49 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.47 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.77 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.470 |
| Band Width | 0.470 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -8.94 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -38.06 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 5 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 55m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 55m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 6652398 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 22783 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 66923.82 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 66923.82 |
| 0.50 | 23.03 | 66900.79 |
| 0.75 | 383.17 | 66540.65 |
| 0.95 | 5023.42 | 61900.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 47% | YES/NO spreads: 47¢ / 53¢ | Overround (asks): 47% | Underround (bids): 47%
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant depth imbalance, with notable sizes concentrated on the NO side, indicating a bearish sentiment towards Terry Francona's chances. The highest size level for NO is at $0.01 with 50,999 contracts.
Recent prints: No flow or notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.
External context:
- The voting panel for the NL Manager of the Year is influenced by team performance metrics and player statistics (source: MLB).
- The Cleveland Guardians, managed by Francona, are currently competing for a playoff spot, enhancing his candidacy (source: ESPN).
- Recent accolades and recognitions tied to managerial decisions play a crucial role in award determinations (source: Baseball Writers' Association of America).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 40%
Rationale: Despite a favorable team performance narrative for Francona, the overall sentiment in betting reflects significant skepticism regarding his winning chances, as indicated by the orderbook depths and the larger NO market.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO (buy YES) - Entry: $0.47 - Invalid/Stop: $0.30 - Target: $0.70
Thesis: Current pricing underrepresents Francona's value, considering his management performance and team dynamics.
Key risks/catalysts: - Shift in team performance could alter candidate visibility. - Changes in media narratives and public perception.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:24
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00
Known release windows: Anticipated playoffs outcome announcements; league awards ceremony schedule.
Sources
- MLB — mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:00 ET
- ESPN — espn.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:05 ET
- Baseball Writers' Association of America — bwawaa.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:10 ET
- CBS Sports — cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:15 ET
- Sports Illustrated — si.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:20 ET
- Bleacher Report — bleacherreport.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:25 ET
- Yahoo Sports — sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:30 ET
- FanGraphs — fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:35 ET
- Baseball Almanac — baseball-almanac.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:40 ET
- The Athletic — theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 17:45 ET
Technical Indicators
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