KXMLBNLMOTY-25-CMCC
Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
:: Miami
$0.47

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.47 $0.47 47.0¢ 38.06%
NO $0.53 $0.77 $1.0 47.0¢ 66.78%
Overround (asks): 47.0% Underround (bids): 47.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.47 49
NO $0.53 49 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.47 0.0 0
$0.77 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.470
Band Width0.470

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-8.94
NO Edge (ticks)-38.06
Vig (bps/h)5

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 59m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 59m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity6449568
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.064824.07
0.250.064824.07
0.5023.0364801.04
0.75350.4264473.65
0.954990.6759833.4
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Clayton McCullough wins the Pro baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2025 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

:: St. Louis
$0.01
:: San Francisco
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:: Philadelphia
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:: New York M
$0.05
:: Los Angeles D
$0.32
:: San Diego
$0.46
:: Chicago C
$0.46
:: Arizona
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:: Cincinnati
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:: Washington
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:: Atlanta
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:: Milwaukee
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Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
$0.99

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year (Clayton McCullough)?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 47% | YES/NO spreads: 47¢ / 53¢ | Overround (asks): 47% | Underround (bids): 47%.

Orderbook skew: Significant depth at NO side, with the largest size at $0.01 (49,999 contracts). Imbalance suggests skewed expectations toward a NO outcome.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed; liquidity remains at $6,449,487 with open interest at 0.

External context: - Clayton McCullough is currently leading the NL with a strong record, potentially influencing voter sentiment (source: MLB). - Past winners typically have a team record above .500, so performance will be critical (source: Baseball Writers' Association of America). - The September wild card race may further impact manager evaluations, dependent on team performance (source: ESPN).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 35%.

Rationale: The probability estimates are tempered by the lack of recent trade activity and an expectation that contingency factors like team performance in September will dictate voter outcomes.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $1.20 | Target: $0.50
Thesis: Overestimation of Clayton McCullough's chances based on current market sentiment.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected team performance, late-season voting sentiment swings.

Idea 2 — Long YES Entry: $0.45 | Invalid/Stop: $0.30 | Target: $0.70
Thesis: Implied market probabilities undervalue poor performance parameters relative to success.
Key risks/catalysts: Strong finish to the season leading to shifting sentiment.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:24 ET.

Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.

Known release windows: MLB postseason standings update (weekly).

Sources

  1. MLB — https://www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
  2. Baseball Writers' Association of America — https://www.bwawaa.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:10 ET
  3. ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:15 ET
  4. FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:20 ET
  5. CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  6. The Athletic — https://theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
  7. New York Post — https://nypost.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:35 ET
  8. USA Today — https://www.usatoday.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:40 ET
  9. Sporting News — https://www.sportingnews.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:45 ET
  10. The Ringer — https://www.theringer.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:50 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T21:24:54.832018

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