Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 1.98% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.04% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 10 |
| NO | $0.98 | 10 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 10 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 57m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 57m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 6640635 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 8569 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.2 | 66678.44 |
| 0.25 | 0.2 | 66678.44 |
| 0.50 | 132.22 | 66546.42 |
| 0.75 | 454.5 | 66224.14 |
| 0.95 | 4875.24 | 61803.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows strong skew towards NO positions with a concentrated depth at NO prices, notably a large order of 50,999 at $0.01.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported; market appears stagnant with no flow.
External context: - Current frontrunner Rob Thomson has led the Philadelphia Phillies to a competitive position in the NL, raising his visibility as a candidate (source: MLB.com). - Historical trends indicate low winning probabilities for managers in similar positions without playoff contention (source: Sabermetrics.org). - Latest analytics suggest Thomson's team performance aligns closely with past award winners (source: ESPN).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: While Thomson’s team performance is competitive, historical data and current market sentiment suggest minimal chances of winning the award, hence a conservative estimate of the probability.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Sell NO position
Entry: $0.98 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: The high NO price indicates market overvaluation of Thomson's winning potential.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected team success or contender vs. non-contender finish.
Idea 2 — Buy YES position
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.05
Thesis: A small wager on Thomson's win could yield significant upside.
Key risks/catalysts: Major swings in team performance or industry opinions.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:26 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: NL Manager of the Year announcement likely in early November post-regular season.
Sources
- MLB.com — Rob Thomson and the NL Manager of the Year — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- Sabermetrics.org — Historical Trends in Manager of the Year Awards — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- ESPN — Team Performance Analysis for Manager Candidates — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- Baseball Reference — 2025 NL Manager Standings — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- The Athletic — Trends in Manager of the Year Voting — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- FanGraphs — Evaluating Manager Performance — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- USA Today — Contender vs. Non-Contender Management Outcomes — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- Rotoworld — Updates on Manager of the Year Candidates — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- CBS Sports — Manager of the Year Landscape — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
- 538 — Manager of the Year Predictions — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:30 ET
Technical Indicators
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