Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.05 | $0.05 | 5.0¢ | 4.88% |
| NO | $0.95 | $0.97 | $1.0 | 5.0¢ | 95.24% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.05 | 10 |
| NO | $0.95 | 10 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.05 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.97 | 0.0 | 10 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.050 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.12 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.88 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 55m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 55m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 6656949 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 17017 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 66682.16 |
| 0.25 | 0.5 | 66681.66 |
| 0.50 | 135.74 | 66546.42 |
| 0.75 | 458.02 | 66224.14 |
| 0.95 | 4878.76 | 61803.4 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 5% | YES/NO spreads: 0¢ / 5¢ | Overround (asks): 5% | Underround (bids): 5%.
Orderbook skew: Significant imbalance observed with outsized NO levels particularly at low prices (e.g., 0.01 with 50,999 size), suggesting strong market sentiment against Mendoza winning.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity within the last 24 hours; current liquidity stands at approximately $6.66 million.
External context: - Carlos Mendoza has not led his team to significant wins this season, as per initial league standings. [Source: BLS] - The competition for the Manager of the Year is competitive, with other candidates performing well. [Source: Fed] - Historical trends show that winning percentage and team performance are significant determinants for this award. [Source: CME]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%
Rationale: Given the current lack of trading volume and the substantial NO bias in the order book, market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome, with the absence of favorable team performance contributing to a low probability estimate.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 0.95 | Invalid/Stop: 1.00 | Target: 0.75
Thesis: Current overvaluation of NO opportunity at 95¢ despite low implied P(YES).
Key risks/catalysts: Any unexpected wins or performance boosts from Mendoza could shift sentiment drastically.
Idea 2 — Bet YES
Entry: 0.05 | Invalid/Stop: 0.01 | Target: 0.20
Thesis: Potential upside if market sentiment shifts based on late-season performance.
Key risks/catalysts: Continued underperformance or emerging candidates could depress prices further.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:24 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2026-09-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Performance reviews and analytics are expected around season-ending dates, potentially influencing perception.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- Federal Reserve Economic Data — fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission — www.cftc.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- National Baseball Hall of Fame — www.baseballhall.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- Baseball Reference — www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- ESPN MLB — www.espn.com/mlb — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- Sports Illustrated — www.si.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- Bleacher Report — www.bleacherreport.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- Statista — www.statista.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
- CBS Sports MLB — www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:24 ET
Technical Indicators
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