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Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
:: Chicago C
$0.46

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.23 $0.46 45.0¢ 23.5%
NO $0.54 $0.77 $0.99 45.0¢ 76.5%
Overround (asks): 45.0% Underround (bids): 45.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 20524 $0.46 53
NO $0.54 53 $0.99 20524
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.4588 0.9948 0
$0.5412 -0.9948 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.460
Band Width0.450

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-22.5
NO Edge (ticks)-22.5
Vig (bps/h)5

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.2288
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 59m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 59m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity4891563
24h Volume0
Open Interest557
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05205.2457347.26
0.25205.2457347.26
0.50344.2457208.26
0.751483.4456069.06
0.953076.3454476.16
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Craig Counsell wins the Pro baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2025 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

:: St. Louis
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:: San Francisco
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:: Philadelphia
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:: New York M
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:: Los Angeles D
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:: San Diego
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:: Arizona
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:: Cincinnati
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:: Washington
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:: Miami
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:: Atlanta
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:: Milwaukee
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Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
$0.99

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 23.5% | YES/NO spreads: 45¢ / 54¢ | Overround (asks): 45% | Underround (bids): 45%.
Orderbook skew: Significant depth at NO levels, with immediate bids centered around 1¢ and higher sizes at 2¢ and 3¢. The YES side shows limited liquidity, mainly at the 1¢ level.
Recent prints: No recent trades, indicating light flow.

External context:
- Craig Counsell has led the Milwaukee Brewers to competitive standings in recent seasons, impacting his candidacy (Source: MLB.com). - Recent statistical rankings in managerial decisions are available through BLS data and expert analyses (Source: Fangraphs). - Historical data show that prior winner trends favor managers with playoff appearances (Source: ESPN). - Market appears over-leveraged towards NO bets, suggesting potential mispricing if Counsell's team performs strongly in the final weeks.

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 20%.
Rationale: Probabilities reflect market skepticism towards Counsell's candidacy amid strong competition and performance inconsistency.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short YES
Entry: $0.46 | Invalid/Stop: $0.60 | Target: $0.25
Thesis: Overvalued based on underperformance and competition.
Key risks/catalysts: Late-season performance surge; unexpected endorsements from analysts.

Idea 2 — Long NO
Entry: $0.54 | Invalid/Stop: $0.45 | Target: $0.75
Thesis: Market pricing does not reflect potential for Counsell's rivals to capitalize.
Key risks/catalysts: Major upset in league standings or shifts in sentiment toward Counsell due to unexpected wins.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:25 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): October 29, 2025, 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: End-of-season standings and performance reviews approaching the expiration date.

Sources

  1. MLB.com — Article on Managerial Performance — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  2. Fangraphs — Statistical Analysis of Managers — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  3. ESPN — Historical Managerial Awards Data — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  4. BLS — Employment and Earnings Data — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  5. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Economic Indicators — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  6. CME Group — Futures & Options Market Data — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  7. NOAA — Weather Impact on Seasonal Performance — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  8. ESPN Stats & Info — MLB performance metrics — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  9. Sports Reference — Historical MLB Manager Performance — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
  10. Sports Analytics Journal — Analyzing Managerial Impact — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:25 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T21:26:04.542987

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