Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 2500 |
| NO | $0.99 | 2500 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2500 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 28m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 28m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11717070 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 20328 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 25.0 | 117386.68 |
| 0.25 | 668.76 | 116742.92 |
| 0.50 | 900.29 | 116511.39 |
| 0.75 | 1760.09 | 115651.59 |
| 0.95 | 18676.84 | 98734.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant skew towards NO positions; no bids dominate with substantial depth seen at lower levels (e.g., 78,999 at $0.01).
Recent prints: There has been light trade activity in the past 24 hours, indicating limited market movement and a lack of liquidity.
External context: - Andrew Abbott is having a strong season statistically, but underdogs typically face uphill battles for major awards (source: MLB.com). - Historical data suggests that winning the Cy Young requires a standout performance, with voters often favoring pitchers on playoff-contending teams (source: Baseball Prospectus). - Recent analytics indicate fluctuations in performance metrics, which can impact Abbott's candidacy as the season progresses (source: FanGraphs). - Current market sentiment is heavily skewed toward NO, reflecting skepticism about Abbott’s competition and team performance.
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Despite Abbott's potential, historical trends indicate that front-runners typically dominate awards like the Cy Young, leading to a low probability assessment.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.96 | Target: $0.90
Thesis: The market’s current pricing does not reflect any possibility of Abbott’s increasing performance metrics and potential to sway voter sentiment.
Key risks/catalysts: Late-season performance spikes from Abbott; dominative performance from other pitchers; unexpected team success impacting award standings.
Idea 2 — Buy YES
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.005 | Target: $0.05
Thesis: In a low probability market, a small upward shift in sentiment could yield significant return on investment.
Key risks/catalysts: Strong closing performances by Abbott; increased media coverage influencing voter opinion; changes in team standings improving Abbott’s visibility.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Regular season finale for MLB; award voting announcements typically follow.
Sources
- MLB.com — https://www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- Baseball Prospectus — https://www.baseballprospectus.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- Sports Illustrated — https://www.si.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- Washington Post — https://www.washingtonpost.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- Yahoo Sports — https://sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
- Bleacher Report — https://bleacherreport.com — Accessed: 2023-10-23 14:45 ET
Technical Indicators
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