Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 6967 |
| NO | $0.99 | 6967 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 6967 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 32m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 32m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10641073 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 69.67 | 104766.23 |
| 0.25 | 69.67 | 104766.23 |
| 0.50 | 534.58 | 104301.32 |
| 0.75 | 1390.3 | 103445.6 |
| 0.95 | 18307.05 | 86528.85 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
```markdown
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant imbalance towards NO with multiple bids at lower price levels, with the largest sizes at 0.01 (69,999 shares) and 0.02 (555 shares), indicating strong sentiment against Clay Holmes winning.
Recent prints: No recent trades; the market appears inactive with a volume of 0 over the last 24 hours.
External context: - According to MLB stats, Clay Holmes currently has a 3.40 ERA, far from leading contenders (Source: MLB.com). - Historical performance indicates a lack of supporting metrics (e.g., strikeout rate and WHIP) relative to front-runners like Sandy Alcantara and Corbin Burnes (Source: Fangraphs). - No upcoming team performance changes expected until postseason, likely limiting Holmes’ impact on Cy Young consideration (Source: ESPN). - Market liquidity at $10,641,149 indicates very low participation and interest in this market thus far.
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Despite some narratives supporting Holmes, statistical evidence and current MLB context strongly favor other players for the Cy Young, leading to a low probability of winning.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 1.5¢ | Target: 1¢
Thesis: Market underestimates Holmes’ chances as oddsmakers adjust narratives.
Key risks/catalysts: Performance spikes in games; competitor performances; market sentiment shifts via media.
Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: 1¢ | Invalid/Stop: 0.5¢ | Target: 2¢
Thesis: A sudden positive run could create speculative interest in Holmes.
Key risks/catalysts: Injury to leading contenders; Major League baseball narratives shifting positively towards Holmes.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:53 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: MLB playoff updates and Cy Young projections in October.
Sources
- MLB Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- Fangraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- Sporting News — https://www.sportingnews.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- Yahoo Sports — https://www.sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- Rotowire — https://www.rotowire.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- MLB Trade Rumors — https://www.mlbtraderumors.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
- The Athletic — https://www.theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:53 ET
```
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