Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 17210 |
| NO | $0.99 | 17210 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 19022 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 28m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 28m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11584628 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 29077 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 224.58 | 117628.7 |
| 0.25 | 1874.93 | 115978.35 |
| 0.50 | 1964.28 | 115889.0 |
| 0.75 | 2194.67 | 115658.61 |
| 0.95 | 19118.44 | 98734.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 0.1¢ / 0.5¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: Significant depth towards "NO," with the largest size at 78,999 contracts at the 0.01 price level indicating strong sentiment against Zack Wheeler winning the award.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported in the last 24 hours.
External context:
- Zack Wheeler's performance has been below historical trends, with a current ERA of 4.15 (source: MLB.com).
- Competing pitchers are showing stronger statistics, increasing the likelihood of Wheeler losing support among voters (source: ESPN).
- Market sentiment historically favors candidates with ERAs under 3.50, which Wheeler does not meet (source: Baseball Reference).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%
Rationale: Given Wheeler's performance metrics and competing talent, the probability of winning is exceptionally low, reinforced by orderbook sentiment.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 1.00 | Target: 0.95
Thesis: The overwhelming sentiment leans toward Wheeler not winning, presenting a brief opportunity for a downturn as the season progresses.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected surge in Wheeler's performance; injuries to competing pitchers.
Idea 2 — Long YES (speculative)
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.005 | Target: 0.02
Thesis: While unlikely, any unexpected breakthrough or media hype could inflate value.
Key risks/catalysts: Return to form or injury to favored competitors; voter sentiment shift.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00
Known release windows: End of regular MLB season; potential injury reports or performance metrics release.
Sources
- MLB.com — https://www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- USA Today Sports — https://www.usatoday.com/sports — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Sporting News — https://www.sportingnews.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Yahoo Sports — https://sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- NBC Sports — https://www.nbcsports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
Technical Indicators
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