Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.04 | $0.04 | 4.0¢ | 3.92% |
| NO | $0.96 | $0.98 | $1.0 | 4.0¢ | 96.15% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.04 | 5000 |
| NO | $0.96 | 5000 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.04 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.98 | 0.0 | 5024 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.040 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.08 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.92 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 15h 8m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 15h 8m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11808728 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 61743 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 200.0 | 118259.1 |
| 0.25 | 1193.41 | 117265.69 |
| 0.50 | 1398.26 | 117060.84 |
| 0.75 | 2258.06 | 116201.04 |
| 0.95 | 19174.81 | 99284.29 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young (Yoshinobu Yamamoto).
Implied P(YES) (mid): 4% | YES/NO spreads: 4¢ / 98¢ | Overround (asks): 4% | Underround (bids): 4%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook indicates a significant bias with a concentrated NO position at multiple price points. The largest bid is at $0.01, with 79,554 contracts, reflecting a strong sell-side sentiment.
Recent prints: No recent trading activity noted, indicating low flow in this market.
External context: - Recent performances of NL pitchers highlight competitive candidates for the award, but Yamamoto stands out with potential albeit unproven in MLB. - Increasing discussions around metrics used in Cy Young voting could influence market sentiment (SportsCenter). - Current reports suggest an upward trend in both fan and media interest in Yamamoto since his MLB debut (Baseball America). - Historical data shows only 3 pitchers have won the Cy Young in their rookie season, indicating challenges ahead (MLB.com).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 10%.
Rationale: The low implied probability reflects market skepticism around Yamamoto's ability to outperform established competitors, although early season performance data might act as a catalyst for adjustment.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy YES - Entry: $0.04 - Invalid/Stop: $0.01 - Target: $0.10 - Thesis: Market underestimates Yamamoto's early-season potential which could shift sentiment quickly. - Key risks/catalysts: Injuries, performance inconsistencies, market sentiment shifts due to media narratives.
Idea 2 — Short NO - Entry: $0.96 - Invalid/Stop: $1.00 - Target: $0.90 - Thesis: Overpriced position given the speculative nature of post-season performance. - Key risks/catalysts: Surprising performances from other candidates, media hype surrounding competitors.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:54 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2026-09-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: MLB postseason performance reviews, voter panels, direct statistics from MLB official sources during the season.
Sources
- Recent pitcher performances — SportsCenter — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Trends in media discussions — Baseball America — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Historical Cy Young stats — MLB.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Current Cy Young candidates — ESPN — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Fan Voting Insights — Bleacher Report — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Pitching metrics analysis — FanGraphs — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Preseason expectations — Sporting News — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Market trends for Cy Young — The Athletic — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Rookie Year Stats — Baseball Reference — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Voting Mechanics — MLB Voting Guide — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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