Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 9220 |
| NO | $0.99 | 9220 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 9220 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 31m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 31m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 12725673 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 14887 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 92.2 | 118108.69 |
| 0.25 | 1409.39 | 116791.5 |
| 0.50 | 1640.0 | 116560.89 |
| 0.75 | 2499.8 | 115701.09 |
| 0.95 | 19416.55 | 98784.34 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a strong bias towards "NO," with significant depth at the NO levels, indicating a low belief in Freddy Peralta winning the Cy Young. The largest NO size is 79,049 at 0.01, followed by lower sizes at increasing prices.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Freddy Peralta's current performance: A breakdown of his season statistics shows an above-average ERA for contenders in the Cy Young race—limited public sentiment supporting his candidacy. (Source: MLB Stats) - Market sentiment around pitching candidates: The consensus currently favors players with stronger win-loss records and lower ERAs, reflecting general market skepticism towards Peralta. (Source: FanGraphs) - Historical trends: Recent NL Cy Young winners have demonstrated more impactful performances in key statistical categories compared to Peralta’s current metrics. (Source: ESPN) - Competition landscape: Other notable contenders like Sandy Alcantara and Max Scherzer are favored, further diluting Peralta's odds. (Source: CBS Sports)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Peralta's lack of significant fanfare and performance metrics considerably dampens his Cy Young candidacy, despite a minor probability imputed by the market.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO contracts
- Entry: $1.00
- Invalid/Stop: $1.02
- Target: $0.95
Thesis: The market is overpricing Peralta’s chances; anticipated increased selling pressure will reduce NO pricing.
Key risks/catalysts: - Shift in team performance boosting public sentiment. - Unexpected statistical improvements or key games that elevate Peralta's visibility.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:53 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: MLB playoffs begin October 7, influencing individual player performance narratives.
Sources
- MLB Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com/mlb/ — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/ — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com/mlb/ — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- Rotowire — https://www.rotowire.com/baseball — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- Sports Illustrated — https://www.si.com/mlb — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- USA Today Sports — https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/ — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- NBC Sports — https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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