Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 9466 |
| NO | $0.99 | 9466 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 14466 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 32m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 32m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11796496 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 583 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 219.66 | 117890.12 |
| 0.25 | 1318.28 | 116791.5 |
| 0.50 | 1548.89 | 116560.89 |
| 0.75 | 2408.69 | 115701.09 |
| 0.95 | 19325.44 | 98784.34 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 0¢ | Overround(asks): 1% |
Underround(bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: Significant skew towards NO side; notable depth in NO with 79,049 contracts at 0.01, tapering off at higher levels.
Recent prints: No notable trading activity observed, indicating limited interest in current positioning.
External context:
- The NL Cy Young award typically favors pitchers with standout season statistics; Ray's current metrics reflect challenges.
- Recent performance fluctuations and injuries may impact perception; key upcoming games will further define his candidacy.
- Historical trends show that relievers and emergent pitchers often overshadow incumbents, mitigating Ray's advantage.
(Sources: ESPN, MLB Stats)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Despite the low implied probability, Ray’s current performance metrics combined with external pressures suggest a potential upside worth a minor stake, albeit with significant risks.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.95 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Market sentiment undervalues Ray's chances, but external metrics show he lacks supporting momentum.
Key risks/catalysts: Performance spikes, injuries to key competitors or other qualifying scenarios affecting market perceptions.
Idea 2 — Short YES
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.00
Thesis: High market skepticism regarding Ray’s candidacy, bolstered by opposing performances; minimal risk at this entry.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected breakout games or late-season narrative shifts could adversely affect valuations.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00
Known release windows: Upcoming player performance reviews and statistics releases through October; key games over the next weeks.
Sources
- ESPN — ESPN MLB Awards — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:00 ET
- MLB Stats — MLB Player Statistics — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:05 ET
- The Athletic — NL Cy Young Race: An Analysis — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:10 ET
- FanGraphs — Historical Cy Young Winners Statistics — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:15 ET
- CBS Sports — Cy Young Predictions — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:20 ET
- Sports Illustrated — Robbie Ray Performance Overview — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:25 ET
- BaseballReference — Robbie Ray Stats — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:30 ET
- RotoWire — Upcoming Matchups Analysis — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:35 ET
- ESPN Analytics — Award Predictions and Probabilities — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:40 ET
- Major League Baseball — Official Awards Timeline — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:45 ET
Technical Indicators
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