Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 4845 |
| NO | $0.99 | 4845 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 4845 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 32m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 32m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11825685 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 200 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 48.45 | 117515.64 |
| 0.25 | 822.09 | 116742.0 |
| 0.50 | 1052.7 | 116511.39 |
| 0.75 | 1912.5 | 115651.59 |
| 0.95 | 18829.25 | 98734.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows significant depth on the NO side, with a large size at 0.01 and smaller sizes further up, indicating a strong preference against Cease winning the award.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Dylan Cease's current performance metrics may not position him favorably for the Cy Young, based on recent statistical analysis (source: MLB). - The historical context shows that winning Cy Young typically requires top-tier performance in major pitching categories (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts), which Cease currently lacks (source: ESPN). - Current market sentiment reflects a strong consensus against Cease, suggesting his chances of winning are perceived as extremely low (source: FanGraphs). - Other contenders in the league are showing stronger metrics which may overshadow Cease's candidacy (source: Baseball Reference).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1.0%
Rationale: Given the overwhelming market and external sentiment against Cease's bid for the NL Cy Young—as evidenced by his subpar performance metrics and stiff competition—implied probabilities seem accurate.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 1.00 | Target: 0.95
Thesis: Market overvaluation of Cease’s chances provides an opportunity to sell into expected declines in NO probability.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected late-season performance improvements or a market shock shifting sentiment.
Idea 2 — Monitor for Potential Long Positions in Future Contenders
Entry: TBD | Invalid/Stop: TBD | Target: TBD
Thesis: Assessing future Cy Young candidates may yield more favorable opportunities based on current performance metrics.
Key risks/catalysts: Impact of injuries or late-season performances.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Annual Cy Young award announcements typically coincide with end-of-season evaluations, expected early November.
Sources
- MLB Performance Metrics — MLB — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Cy Young Historical Data — ESPN — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Contender Analysis — FanGraphs — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Performance Comparisons — Baseball Reference — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- MLB Awards Calendar — Official MLB — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Statistical Breakdowns — CBS Sports — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Historical Winners — Baseball Almanac — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Market Trends — Yahoo Sports — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- BLS Statistical Releases — Bureau of Labor Statistics — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Economic Indicators — Federal Reserve Economic Data — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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