Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 5656 |
| NO | $0.99 | 5656 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 5856 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 31m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 31m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10427688 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 60.56 | 104328.51 |
| 0.25 | 60.56 | 104328.51 |
| 0.50 | 410.76 | 103978.31 |
| 0.75 | 1266.48 | 103122.59 |
| 0.95 | 18183.23 | 86205.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1.0¢ / 99.0¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book reflects a significant depth imbalance with the majority of activity at NO. The largest NO size is 69,999 at $0.01, indicating strong market conviction against Gore’s win.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity has been observed over the past 24 hours.
External context: - MacKenzie Gore currently has one of the lowest odds for the NL Cy Young, trailing behind favorites such as Julio Urías and Corbin Burnes. (Source: MLB.com) - The Cy Young award will consider player performance metrics including ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched, highly influenced by team success in the last month of the season. (Source: ESPN) - MLB regular-season performance data indicates that relievers historically have lower chances of winning the Cy Young compared to star starters. (Source: Baseball Reference)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Gore's performance metrics trail the leading candidates significantly, and historical trends favor established starters over relievers in Cy Young discussions.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.95 | Target: $0.02
Thesis: Market incorrectly underestimates Gore’s final month potential as his team competes strongly.
Key risks/catalysts: Potential for a surge in performance; team success in key games; changes in competitor standings.
Idea 2 — Go Long on the Market
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.98
Thesis: Implied market inefficiency suggests betting against low probability for Gore will pay off as the narrative shifts.
Key risks/catalysts: Shifting market sentiment; notable blow-out games by other candidates; injury risks to competitors.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Metrics to be updated weekly, with the official Cy Young announcement expected shortly after the postseason.
Sources
- MLB.com — https://www.mlb.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Fangraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Sports Illustrated — https://www.si.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- NBC Sports — https://www.nbcsports.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
Technical Indicators
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