Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 6967 |
| NO | $0.99 | 6967 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 6967 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 31m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 31m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10555615 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 69.67 | 104207.51 |
| 0.25 | 69.67 | 104207.51 |
| 0.50 | 298.87 | 103978.31 |
| 0.75 | 1154.59 | 103122.59 |
| 0.95 | 18071.34 | 86205.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Hunter Greene win the NL Cy Young Award in the 2025 season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 0.0¢ / 0.5¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a dominant no position with significant depth at lower prices; the largest bid is at 0.01 with a size of 69,999. The lack of buy orders indicates a strong belief that Greene won't win.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity indicates current market skepticism regarding Greene’s chances.
External context: - Hunter Greene has shown promise this season but lacks consistent performance metrics compared to leading Cy Young contenders. (Source: ESPN) - Recent injury reports suggest ongoing concerns about Greene’s pitch endurance, impacting his post-season effectiveness. (Source: MLB.com) - Historical trends indicate that pitchers with lower than 2.50 ERA tend to be favored for Cy Young consideration in the last decade. Currently, Greene’s ERA stands higher than that. (Source: Baseball-Reference)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Analysis of current performance indicators and historical trends suggests limited likelihood of Greene winning, hence supporting a low probability estimate.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Sell NO - Entry: 0.99 - Invalid/Stop: 1.05 - Target: 0.85 - Thesis: Market underestimates Greene's potential; current odds presented are too generous. - Key risks/catalysts: Performance improvement, unexpected wins in key matchups, or positive injury updates.
Idea 2 — Buy YES - Entry: 0.01 - Invalid/Stop: 0.005 - Target: 0.05 - Thesis: Marginal upside exists if Greene's performance spikes in the last part of the season. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected turnaround in Greene’s performance metrics and postseason effects.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:55
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00.
Known release windows: End of regular MLB season updates, playoff performances.
Sources
- ESPN — Hunter Greene Cy Young Odds — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- MLB.com — Injury Report on Hunter Greene — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Baseball-Reference — Past Cy Young Winners — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- USA Today — NL Cy Young Candidates 2025 — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Sabermetrics Blog — Evaluating Pitcher Performance for Awards — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Fangraphs — Hunter Greene Season Stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Bleacher Report — MLB 2025 Awards Predictions — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Sports Illustrated — Pitcher Performance Metrics — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- The Athletic — NL MVP & Cy Young Discussion — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- SI Vault — Historical ERA Trends — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →