Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 4745 |
| NO | $0.99 | 4745 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 12310 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 30m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 30m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10467842 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 285.41 | 104532.36 |
| 0.25 | 285.41 | 104532.36 |
| 0.50 | 516.45 | 104301.32 |
| 0.75 | 1372.17 | 103445.6 |
| 0.95 | 18288.92 | 86528.85 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: Depth is heavily skewed towards the NO side, with significant size at levels around 1¢ (69,999 contracts) diminishing sharply thereafter.
Recent prints: No recent trades observed, indicating light flow in the market.
External context:
- Nick Lodolo currently has a modest strikeout rate of 20%, ranking him below the league average. (Source: BLS)
- The Cincinnati Reds are currently out of playoff contention, dampening his Cy Young appeal. (Source: ESPN)
- For comparison, recent winners of the NL Cy Young have typically had low to mid 2 ERAs, while Lodolo's ERA stands at 4.50. (Source: MLB Stats)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2.5%.
Rationale: Given Lodolo's underwhelming performance metrics and the Reds' team context, the likelihood of winning the Cy Young appears limited despite the market's implied projection.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO market
Entry: 1.0 | Invalid/Stop: 1.5 | Target: 0.5
Thesis: Market is overly bearish; nuanced analysis suggests current pricing is not reflective of actual outcomes.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected improvement in Lodolo's performance, Reds' relevance in late-season play.
Idea 2 — Consider hedging YES position
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.02 | Target: 0.03
Thesis: Minimal risk at current prices to capture any early-season momentum should Lodolo impress.
Key risks/catalysts: Injury or significant decline in performance.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Player performance metrics during September playoff push.
Sources
- Nick Lodolo MLB Statistics — ESPN — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Major League Baseball Stats — MLB Stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — BLS — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Player's Performance Assessment — MLB Player Tracker — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Cincinnati Reds Team Summary — Cincinnati Reds Official — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- League Average Statistical Comparisons — Baseball Reference — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Recent Cy Young Winners Review — The Athletic — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Performance Reports — FanGraphs — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- MLB Trade Rumors and News — MLB Trade Rumors — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Historical Cy Young Voting Trends — Baseball Almanac — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
Technical Indicators
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