Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 7469 |
| NO | $0.99 | 7469 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 7469 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 35m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 35m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11775275 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 5568 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 74.69 | 117685.12 |
| 0.25 | 1018.27 | 116741.54 |
| 0.50 | 1248.42 | 116511.39 |
| 0.75 | 2108.22 | 115651.59 |
| 0.95 | 19024.97 | 98734.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.00% | YES/NO spreads: 0.01¢ / 0.99¢ | Overround (asks): 1.00% | Underround (bids): 1.00%
Orderbook skew: The ask side for "YES" is virtually non-existent with no open higher bids, illustrating a significant skew towards "NO." Notable sizes on the "NO" side indicate the market's belief that Chris Sale will not win.
Recent prints: No recent trades observed, indicating light activity in the market.
External context: - The current season statistics show Chris Sale's performance, including metrics such as ERA and strikeouts, remain below league standards. - Historical trends indicate that player injuries often impact Cy Young outcomes significantly. - Competitive candidates for the NL Cy Young include other top pitchers who are outperforming Sale this season (MLB Stats).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1.00%
Rationale: Given the vast statistical evidence and historical trends indicating that Sale’s current performance does not meet Cy Young standards, the likelihood of him winning remains minimal.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short "Yes" Position
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.005
Thesis: Given Sale’s poor performance relative to top contenders, a short position on "YES" at current pricing is justified.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Surge in Sale's performance metrics.
- Unexpected injuries to leading competitors.
Idea 2 — Long "No" Position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: A long position in "NO" reflects high confidence against Sale winning the award.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Last-minute changes in voter sentiment.
- Major upsets in player performances.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET
Known release windows: End of MLB regular season performance metrics and awards announcements.
Sources
- MLB Statistics Overview — mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Baseball Reference, Historical Cy Young Awards — baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- MLB Team Performance Reports — mlb.com/team-report — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- FanGraphs Player Stats — fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Cy Young Historical Data — baseballalmanac.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Recent Pitching Stats — espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Injury Reports — espn.com/injuries — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Sports Injury Center — sportsinjurycenter.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Current MLB Standings — mlb.com/standings — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
- Cy Young Analytics — theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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