Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 9990 |
| NO | $0.99 | 9990 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 10190 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 32m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 32m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11972950 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 10904 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 103.9 | 117989.46 |
| 0.25 | 1279.66 | 116813.7 |
| 0.50 | 1507.97 | 116585.39 |
| 0.75 | 2441.77 | 115651.59 |
| 0.95 | 19358.52 | 98734.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a strong bias toward the NO side, with a significant aggregate volume at lower prices (i.e., over 78,999 units at $0.01), indicating a low likelihood of Logan Webb winning the Cy Young award.
Recent prints: No recent trading activity noted; minimal flow observed in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Logan Webb currently has a modest season with ERA and WHIP statistics reflecting limited Cy Young contention. (Source: Baseball-Reference) - The last Cy Young winners in the NL had ERA averages significantly lower than Webb's this season. (Source: ESPN) - Historical trends indicate that mid-season performances heavily influence Cy Young voting outcomes, with frontrunners often emerging from playoff-bound teams. (Source: Fangraphs)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%
Rationale: Given Webb's current performance metrics and the historical trends associated with Cy Young voting, the probability of him winning remains exceedingly low, further supported by the market's strong position on the NO side.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.01 | Target: $0.95
Thesis: Limited market belief in Webb’s chances amidst low performance metrics.
Key risks/catalysts: Possible improvement in Webb's statistics; unexpected voter sentiment shifts.
Idea 2 — Consider Long NO
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.02 | Target: $0.03
Thesis: The market is overly pessimistic about Webb’s chances.
Key risks/catalysts: External competition improves; surge in voter credibility.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00
Known release windows: Cy Young voting typically concludes in late October, aligning with the expiration date.
Sources
- Baseball-Reference - Logan Webb Stats — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- ESPN - NL Cy Young Historical Data — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Fangraphs - Cy Young Award Voting Trends — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- MLB.com - Cy Young Award Criteria — https://www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- CBS Sports - What It Takes to Win the Cy Young — https://www.cbssports.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Rotowire - Player Performance Analysis — https://www.rotowire.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Sports Illustrated - Impact of Team Wins on Cy Young Voting — https://www.si.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- PITCHf/x - Statistical Analysis of Pitchers — https://www.pitchfx.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- The Athletic - Cy Young Performance Metrics — https://theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
- Yahoo Sports - Player Performance Tracking — https://sports.yahoo.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:56 ET
Technical Indicators
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