Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 9990 |
| NO | $0.99 | 9990 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 10290 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 30m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 30m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11776708 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 11970 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 105.9 | 117803.9 |
| 0.25 | 1168.26 | 116741.54 |
| 0.50 | 1398.41 | 116511.39 |
| 0.75 | 2258.21 | 115651.59 |
| 0.95 | 19174.96 | 98734.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Spencer Schwellenbach's candidacy for the NL Cy Young Award in the 2025 season.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% |
Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: Significant depth on the NO side, with the highest size at $0.01 (78,999 contracts). Minimal YES levels indicate no market support for Schwellenbach.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity observed.
External context:
- Schwellenbach has had limited market visibility and recognition, likely impacting his bet attractiveness.
- The NL Cy Young race shows high competition, with stronger candidates like Sandy Alcantara and Corbin Burnes dominating early discussions.
- Current statistical performance metrics favor these established pitchers over emerging talents like Schwellenbach. (Source: ESPN, accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET)
- The broader betting market reflects low confidence in Schwellenbach's chances, reporting negligible odds. (Source: DraftKings, accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%
Rationale: Schwellenbach lacks significant statistical support, with established competitors overshadowing his candidacy; hence, market probabilities reflect his low chance of winning.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.95
Thesis: Schwellenbach is unlikely to receive significant votes, making declines in NO prices probable.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected performance surge, changes in voter sentiment, media attention.
Idea 2 — Consider a YES position (small stake)
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.02 | Target: $0.05
Thesis: A low-risk, speculative play on Schwellenbach outperforming expectations.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden recognition from sports analysts, potential contributions to a wildcard playoff spot.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:56 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET
Known release windows: MLB All-Star Game performance stats, mid-season player recognition events.
Sources
- ESPN — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- DraftKings — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- MLB.com — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- FanGraphs — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- BaseballReference — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- The Athletic — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- CBS Sports — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- USA Today — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Rotoworld — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Sports Illustrated — [URL] — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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