Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 7676 |
| NO | $0.99 | 7676 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 7676 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 30m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 30m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 10459936 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 76.76 | 104549.1 |
| 0.25 | 76.76 | 104549.1 |
| 0.50 | 647.55 | 103978.31 |
| 0.75 | 1503.27 | 103122.59 |
| 0.95 | 18420.02 | 86205.84 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround(asks): 1% |
Underround(bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The order book is heavily skewed towards the NO position, with the largest bid sizes concentrated at 1¢. Notable sizes include 69,999 contracts at 1¢ and 16,869 contracts at 3¢.
Recent prints: No significant trade activity observed; the market shows light flow.
External context: - Michael King, a key pitcher for the New York Yankees, is currently not a frontrunner in Cy Young discussions, evidenced by his recent performance metrics (source: ESPN). - Historical performance indicates that the Yankees typically need a top-tier ace to win the Cy Young, underscoring King's uphill battle (source: Sports Illustrated). - Comparisons to current candidates, such as Sandy Alcantara and Corbin Burnes, further diminish King's standing (source: MLB.com).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1%.
Rationale: Given the current market pricing and external analyses indicating King's underperformance relative to competitors, the implied probability reflects minimal market confidence.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 0.99 | Invalid/Stop: 0.97 | Target: 0.95
Thesis: Market sentiment is overly pessimistic regarding King’s Cy Young chances.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected strong performances in upcoming games; injury to competitors.
Idea 2 — Long YES on rival candidates
Entry: TBD | Invalid/Stop: TBD | Target: TBD
Thesis: Diversifying exposure via candidates likely to surge as top contenders can hedge against King's position.
Key risks/catalysts: Shifts in candidate performance or injury to frontrunners.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:56.
Expected expiration (ET): October 29, 2025, 14:00.
Known release windows: Cy Young voting results expected in early November 2025.
Sources
- ESPN — Michael King's Season Performance — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Sports Illustrated — Cy Young Historical Winners Analysis — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- MLB.com — 2025 Cy Young Candidates — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- FanGraphs — MLB Pitcher Leaderboards — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- CBS Sports — Latest MLB News — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- The Ringer — Analyzing 2025 Player Performances — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Bleacher Report — Cy Young Contenders — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- USA Today — MLB Predictions 2025 — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Baseball Reference — Player Stats — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- ESPN Stats & Info — MLB Insights — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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