Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 407 |
| NO | $0.99 | 407 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2730 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-07 05:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 15h 6m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 15h 6m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1450193 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 95 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 50.53 | 13570.07 |
| 0.25 | 607.17 | 13013.43 |
| 0.50 | 607.17 | 13013.43 |
| 0.75 | 1091.6 | 13008.25 |
| 0.95 | 1091.6 | 12529.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant imbalance with low liquidity on the YES side (no bids) and concentrated sell orders on the NO side. Notably, the largest NO ask is 1,000 at $1.00 with smaller sizes cascading down to $0.01.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Ranger Suarez has a current season statistical profile that ranks below competing candidates for the NL Cy Young award, based on ERA and strikeouts per nine innings. [Source: MLB Stats] - The award is generally influenced by late-season performances, particularly during September. Previous years’ performances indicate drastic impacts on decision-making in the final month. [Source: ESPN] - The betting odds from sportsbooks heavily favor other contenders, indicating market doubt on Suarez’s chances. [Source: Vegas Insider]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Suarez's low statistical standing amongst peers for the award correlates with an extremely low market interest, as reflected in the order book, supporting a minimal probability of winning.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $1.01 | Target: $0.95
Thesis: Market overestimates Suarez's potential for an award, creating an opportunity to short.
Key risks/catalysts: Surge in performance or perception shift among voters.
Idea 2 — Buy YES
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.02 | Target: $0.05
Thesis: If Suarez makes an unexpected comeback in performance metrics, this bet could yield high returns.
Key risks/catalysts: Announcements of awards criteria changes or major media coverage boosting his candidacy.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:55 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-29 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Final MLB performance statistics on October 1, 2025, and Cy Young award announcement in early November 2025.
Sources
- MLB Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com/mlb/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Vegas Insider — https://www.vegasinsider.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Sports Illustrated — https://www.si.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- CBS Sports — https://www.cbssports.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- The Athletic — https://theathletic.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- MLB Network — https://www.mlbnetwork.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Bleacher Report — https://bleacherreport.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:55 ET
Technical Indicators
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