Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 3503 |
| NO | $0.99 | 3503 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 7497 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.05 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 16h 34m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 16h 34m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11901471 |
| 24h Volume | 33 |
| Open Interest | 32846 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 164.79 | 117574.08 |
| 0.25 | 936.46 | 116802.41 |
| 0.50 | 1114.98 | 116623.89 |
| 0.75 | 2037.78 | 115701.09 |
| 0.95 | 18954.53 | 98784.34 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 0.1¢ / 0.5¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: The orderbook favors a strong NO position with most liquidity concentrated in the NO ask at $1.00, suggesting traders lack confidence in Sanchez winning; notable sizes exist at higher NO levels.
Recent prints: No recent trades reported, indicating low market flow.
External context:
- As of September 22, 2025, Sanchez has a subpar ERA compared to his peers (source: MLB.com).
- Historical trends show Cy Young winners tend to come from teams with strong win records (source: ESPN).
- Current betting markets reflect a 99% implied probability against Sanchez winning (source: Oddschecker).
- Sanchez has limited exposure in major media compared to frontrunners like Corbin Burnes (source: Bleacher Report).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%
Rationale: Sanchez's performance metrics and team context lag behind leading candidates, reinforcing extremely low market confidence.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.95
Thesis: Entering at the current NO price allows for slight retracement profit given the low implied probability.
Key risks/catalysts: Performance spikes from Sanchez or other candidates and market volatility post-September game results.
Idea 2 — Potential long YES
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.00 | Target: $0.05
Thesis: Maximum upside with a negligible downside. Any positive performance could lead to price adjustments.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden media attention or standout performances could alter market sentiment.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:56 ET
Expected expiration (ET): October 29, 2025, 14:00 ET
Known release windows: MLB performance stats update frequently; keen monitoring of Sanchez’s game outcomes will be vital over the next weeks.
Sources
Technical Indicators
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