KXTSAW-25SEP28-A1.80
Will more than 1800000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
1.8 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.02%
NO $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 2.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.98 666 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.02 666
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.99 0.0 666
$0.02 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.980 – 1.000
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.98
NO Edge (ticks)-0.02
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66512
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0652.68
0.2520.0652.68
0.5020.0652.68
0.7520.0652.68
0.9520.0652.68
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.8 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 1,800,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 99% | YES/NO spreads: 0.0¢ / 2.0¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% | Underround (bids): 2.0%.

Orderbook skew: - Significant skew towards the YES side with a notable depth observed at the YES ask of 1.00 USD and a bid at 0.98 USD, indicating strong demand at these levels, but minimal liquidity at NO (0.0 bid, 0.02 ask).

Recent prints: - No notable trade activity in the last 24 hours.

External context: - TSA reported an increase in traveler numbers with significant upticks in air travel post-pandemic. (TSA) - Seasonal travel trends show growth during autumn months, further corroborating higher screening numbers. (Airlines for America) - Current macroeconomic factors, including employment rates and consumer spending, support rising travel activity. (BLS)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.

Rationale: Given current trends in travel and the historical data indicating increased screenings during this period, we believe the probability is lower than implied but still significantly weighted towards YES.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES Position
- Entry: 0.99 USD
- Invalid/Stop: 0.98 USD
- Target: 1.02 USD
- Thesis: Strong seasonal travel trends likely to hold above 1.8 million screenings.
- Key risks/catalysts: Possible downturns in unexpected travel restrictions, economic downturn influencing discretionary travel, or sharp declines in consumer confidence.

Idea 2 — Consider Short NO Position
- Entry: 0.02 USD
- Invalid/Stop: 0.04 USD
- Target: 0.01 USD
- Thesis: Minimal probability of NO scenario based on current demand trends for screenings.
- Key risks/catalysts: Overwhelmingly low traveler demand could prompt downward revisions.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:26 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: TSA screening data is expected to be released on September 29, 2025, prior to expiration.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Screening Report — tsa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  2. Airlines for America Travel Trends Report — airlines.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  3. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Economic Situation — bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  4. Traveler Screening Numbers Historical Data — tsa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  5. FRED Economic Data Portal — fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  6. Nationwide Air Travel Forecasts — nwa.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  7. NWS Economic Impact Reports — weather.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  8. Travel Industry Association Reports — travelassociation.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  9. CDC Travel Advisories and Updates — cdc.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  10. Global Travel Market Analysis — gti.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:26:55.170104

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