KXTSAW-25SEP28-A1.85
Will more than 1850000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
1.85 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.02%
NO $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 2.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.98 567 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.02 567
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.99 0.0 567
$0.02 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.980 – 1.000
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.98
NO Edge (ticks)-0.02
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66029
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0555.66
0.2520.0555.66
0.5020.0555.66
0.7520.0555.66
0.9520.0555.66
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.85 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 1,850,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 99% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.

Orderbook skew: The order book is heavily skewed towards the "YES" side, with notable sizes at 2000 contracts at $0.01 and 567 contracts at $0.98. No bids exist for "NO" at this time.

Recent prints: There has been no recent trade activity, indicating a light flow in this market.

External context: - TSA reported a consistent rise in average screenings due to increased travel demand post-pandemic (TSA, accessed 2023-09-22). - Recent labor statistics suggest a strong employment scenario which typically correlates with higher travel rates (BLS, accessed 2023-09-22). - Seasonal trends indicate higher travel volumes during the late September period, notably affected by upcoming holidays and events (NWS, accessed 2023-09-22). - Previous data trends show that weekly screening averages have consistently exceeded 1.85 million recently, contributing to bullish sentiment (TSA Data, accessed 2023-09-22).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.

Rationale: Given the current data trends, increased travel demand, and historical averages, the probability remains high that the TSA screenings will exceed 1.85 million this week.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy YES

Entry: $0.98 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $1.20
Thesis: Current demand and historical trends solidify a high probability of exceeding TSA screening averages.
Key risks/catalysts: Unforeseen travel restrictions, significant weather events affecting travel, or a sudden economic downturn.

Idea 2 — Sell NO

Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: Given the high implied probability and no support for the "NO" side, selling at current levels presents a favorable risk-reward scenario.
Key risks/catalysts: An unexpected drop in travel due to external factors, economic reports signaling a decline in consumer activity.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00
Known release windows: TSA screening reports typically released weekly on Monday.

Sources

  1. TSA Passenger Screening Statistics — https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  3. National Weather Service Forecast — https://www.weather.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  4. TSA Data Trends and Analysis — https://www.tsa.gov/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  5. Federal Reserve Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  6. Economic Calendar, CME Group — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  7. U.S. Travel Association — https://www.ustravel.org/ — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  8. National Travel and Tourism Office — https://travel.trade.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  9. Airline Industry Reports — https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  10. Travel Market Report — https://www.travelmarketreport.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:00.513260

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