KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.45
Will more than 2450000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.45 million
$0.28

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.27 $0.28 $0.28 1.0¢ 27.5%
NO $0.72 $0.72 $0.73 1.0¢ 72.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.27 0 $0.28 0
NO $0.72 0 $0.73 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.28 0.0 430
$0.72 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.270 – 0.280
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.28
ΔSpread (¢) -40.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.06
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity3854525
24h Volume1721
Open Interest2064
OI Turnover (24h)0.83
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05135.02849.22
0.25562.892296.33
0.50938.71920.52
0.75938.71920.52
0.951785.71073.52
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.45 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,450,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 55.5% | YES/NO spreads: 21¢ / 41¢ | Overround (asks): 41% | Underround (bids): 41%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows significant depth on the YES side, with the largest size at $0.05 for 2,500 shares. There is a notable imbalance favoring YES orders.

Recent prints: Light trading activity noted with no significant recent prints.

External context: - TSA reported average daily screenings of 2.45 million last week, indicating stability (TSA). - Recent travel demand has been bolstered by lower gas prices, suggesting increased travel (EIA). - Consumer confidence indices are rising, which typically correlates with higher travel rates (University of Michigan).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 60%.

Rationale: The recent consistent screening numbers and rising consumer confidence indicators support a higher probability that TSA screenings will remain above the 2.45 million threshold this week.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy YES - Entry: $0.60 - Invalid/Stop: $0.45 - Target: $1.00 - Thesis: Rising consumer confidence and stable travel numbers suggest higher TSA screenings. - Key risks/catalysts: Potential new COVID-19 variants affecting travel, sudden changes in gas prices impacting travel demand.

Idea 2 — Sell NO - Entry: $0.45 - Invalid/Stop: $0.60 - Target: $0.25 - Thesis: Odds of screenings falling below 2.45 million are reduced by current trends. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected events (e.g., natural disasters or travel restrictions) that could lead to sudden declines in travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-28 03:59.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-29 14:00.
Known release windows: Weekly TSA airport screening data release expected post-expiration.

Sources

  1. TSA Reports — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  2. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — EIA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  3. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — SurveyofConsumers.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  4. FRED Economic Data — FRED.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  5. Travel Trends Report — TravelMarketReport.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  6. Gas Price Reports — AAA.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  7. Airline Industry Reports — IATA.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  8. National Transportation Safety Board — NTSB.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  9. COVID-19 Impact on Travel — CDC.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  10. Macro Economic Reports — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:09.488013

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