KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.20
Will more than 2200000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.2 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.95 $0.97 $1.0 5.0¢ 95.12%
NO $0.0 $0.05 $0.05 5.0¢ 4.99%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.95 612 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.05 612
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.97 0.0 612
$0.05 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.950 – 1.000
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.88
NO Edge (ticks)-0.12
Vig (bps/h)4

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity68095
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0581.4
0.2520.0581.4
0.5020.0581.4
0.7520.0581.4
0.95601.4581.4
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.2 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,200,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 97.5% | YES/NO spreads: 95¢ / 5¢ | Overround (asks): 5% | Underround (bids): 5%.

Orderbook skew: The order book shows a notable skew towards the YES side, with 2000 contracts offered at 1¢ and 612 contracts at 95¢, indicating strong bullish sentiment.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity recently; market liquidity stands at $201,060 and open interest is at 0.

External context: - TSA screenings have seen a seasonal increase, historically suggesting high flow prior to holidays (TSA Data). - Recent travel trends indicate increased consumer confidence, correlating with higher screening figures (Airline Industry Report). - Forecasts indicate continued growth in air travel, supported by economic indicators (Bureau of Transportation Statistics).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.

Rationale: Given the historical seasonal trends and increasing travel patterns post-pandemic, the current market conditions favor a high likelihood of surpassing 2.2 million average screenings.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES - Entry: $1.0 - Invalid/Stop: $0.90 - Target: $1.30 - Thesis: Continued seasonal growth in air travel will support high TSA screenings. - Key risks/catalysts: Changes in travel advisories, economic downturn impacts, unexpected weather events disrupting air traffic.

Idea 2 — Short NO - Entry: $0.05 - Invalid/Stop: $0.10 - Target: $0.01 - Thesis: Low probability of screenings falling below 2.2 million given current trends. - Key risks/catalysts: Sudden drop in consumer confidence or significant travel restrictions.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 29, 2025, 03:59 UTC (September 28, 2025, 23:59 ET).

Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, 14:00 UTC (September 28, 2025, 10:00 ET).

Known release windows: Subsequent TSA weekly reports typically released on Mondays.

Sources

  1. TSA Data — https://www.tsa.gov/about/press/releases — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  2. Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Historical Airline Traffic Data — https://transtats.bts.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  3. Airline Industry Report: Consumer Confidence Trends — https://www.airlines.org/report — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  4. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  5. Economic Indicators for Travel Industry — https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  6. TSA Press Releases — https://www.tsa.gov/news/press — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  7. Weekly TSA Screening Statistics — https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  8. Travel and Tourism Data — https://travel.trade.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  9. National Transportation Safety Board — https://www.ntsb.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
  10. U.S. Travel Association: Travel Trends 2025 — https://www.ustravel.org/research — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:30 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:14.299334

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