KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.75
Will more than 2750000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.75 million
$0.02

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 1.98%
NO $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.04%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.02 814
NO $0.98 814 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.02 0.0 0
$0.99 0.0 814

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.020
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.02
NO Edge (ticks)-1.98
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.03
ΔSpread (¢) -3.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 11h 19m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 21h 20m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity28717
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0516.281980.0
0.2516.281980.0
0.5016.281980.0
0.7516.281980.0
0.9516.281980.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.75 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

Related Markets

2.8 million
$0.02
2.7 million
$0.03
2.65 million
$0.03
2.6 million
$0.05
2.55 million
$0.05
2.5 million
$0.06
2.45 million
$0.33
2.4 million
$0.89
2.35 million
$1.0
2.3 million
$1.0
2.25 million
$1.0
2.2 million
$1.0
2.15 million
$1.0
2.1 million
$1.0
2.05 million
$1.0
2 million
$1.0
1.95 million
$1.0
1.9 million
$1.0
1.85 million
$1.0
1.8 million
$1.0

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,750,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a deep imbalance towards "NO" with notable size at the bid level, specifically 814 contracts at $0.98, indicating strong sentiment against the "YES" outcome. There is minimal liquidity on the "YES" side, with no current offers above 2¢.

Recent prints: No recent trade activity indicates a largely inactive market.

External context: - TSA reported an increase in travel as summer vacations conclude, with airport screenings averaging around 2.4 million per day in recent weeks (TSA, September 2025). - Recent economic data suggests leisure travel is recovering, with projections of rising traveler numbers post-summer (Travel Market Report, September 2025). - Weather forecasts indicate clear skies across the majority of U.S. airports, potentially supporting higher travel volumes (NOAA, September 2025). - Weekly fluctuations often occur around holiday periods, and end-of-month trends may also influence screening numbers (Historical TSA data).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 10%.

Rationale: Although recent trends show a recovery in travel, the current weekly average is notably below the threshold. The upcoming week does not include significant holiday travel incentives, keeping my estimate conservative.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short "YES" exposure
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: Current market pricing underestimates the challenges of achieving average screen numbers above 2.75 million in a week without specific catalysts.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected surge in travel demand; adverse weather conditions affecting travel plans; large-scale events that boost airport traffic significantly.

Idea 2 — Scrutinize further economic releases
Entry: N/A | Invalid/Stop: N/A | Target: Monitor closely for economic data that may affect the travel outlook.
Thesis: Tracking upcoming economic reports may provide insights into changing travel trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Economic indicators deviating from recent patterns; promotional travel events that encourage higher airport traffic.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 29, 2025, 03:59 UTC
Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, 14:00 UTC
Known release windows: Economic snapshots for September are expected to drop late in the month, influencing transport and travel predictions.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Screening Reports — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  2. Travel Market Report: Factors Influencing Travel Trends — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  3. NOAA Weather Forecast for Major U.S. Airports — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  4. Historical Data on TSA Screening Patterns — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  5. Economic Indicators and Travel Forecasts — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  6. Federal Reserve Economic Data Releases — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  7. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Trends — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  8. Transportation Security Administration – Insights on Air Travel — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  9. U.S. Department of Transportation: Travel Demand Insights — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  10. Futures Exchange Data on Travel Patterns — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:01.631195

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →