KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.30
Will more than 2300000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.3 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.94 $0.97 $1.0 6.0¢ 94.17%
NO $0.0 $0.06 $0.06 6.0¢ 5.99%
Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.94 0 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.06 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.97 0.0 466
$0.06 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.940 – 1.000
Band Width0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-5.83
NO Edge (ticks)-0.17
Vig (bps/h)5

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.01
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity364257
24h Volume0
Open Interest2
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0889.72
0.2520.0889.72
0.5020.0889.72
0.75395.0889.72
0.95909.720.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.3 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Weekly TSA screenings in the U.S. to exceed 2.3 million on average.

Implied P(YES) (mid): 96.5% | YES/NO spreads: 7¢ / 0¢ | Overround(asks): 7% |
Underround(bids): 7%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows significant demand for "YES" contracts at varying sizes, primarily clustered around the 93¢ level, with notable trades at the 0.01 price level indicating speculative interest or attempts to extract value from market fluctuations. No bids for "NO" contracts were present, suggesting market confidence in a YES outcome.

Recent prints: No significant trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.

External context: - The TSA reported an increase in screenings during peak travel seasons, with average weekly numbers surpassing 2.5 million in recent months (TSA). - Current travel trends indicate strong demand for air travel, aligning with pre-pandemic levels as economic recovery continues (BLS). - Ongoing factors including seasonal holidays and school breaks are expected to sustain or elevate screening numbers in the coming weeks (NWS).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 94%.

Rationale: The high implied probability of 96.5% reflects strong recent trends in air travel demand and TSA reports; however, potential fluctuations due to unforeseen events might reduce confidence slightly.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES - Entry: 0.93 | Invalid/Stop: 0.75 | Target: 1.20 - Thesis: Strong travel patterns and historical data support expected TSA screenings over 2.3 million. - Key risks/catalysts: Unforeseen events (e.g., weather disruptions), changes in airline operations, macroeconomic shifts affecting travel behavior.

Idea 2 — Short NO - Entry: 0.07 | Invalid/Stop: 0.10 | Target: 0.01 - Thesis: The current market sentiment and lack of movement in NO contracts indicate confidence in a YES outcome. - Key risks/catalysts: Sudden drop in travel demand, detrimental news impacting TSA operations.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:27
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00
Known release windows: Weekly TSA data releases every Monday.

Sources

  1. TSA Screening Data — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  2. Employment Situation Summary — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  3. Travel Trends Report — Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  4. Weekly Weather Forecast — NOAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  5. Economic Outlook — Federal Reserve — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  6. Travel Demand Insights — IATA — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  7. Recent Airline Performance — FlightAware — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  8. Economic Indicators Brief — BEA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  9. Consumer Confidence Index — Conference Board — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
  10. Federal Transportation Update — DOT.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-01 10:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:21.852271

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