KXTSAW-25SEP28-A1.90
Will more than 1900000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
1.9 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.02%
NO $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 2.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.98 551 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.02 551
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.99 0.0 551
$0.02 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.980 – 1.000
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.98
NO Edge (ticks)-0.02
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66157
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0539.98
0.2520.0539.98
0.5020.0539.98
0.7520.0539.98
0.9520.0539.98
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.9 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 1,900,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 99% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 0¢ | Overround(asks): 2% | Underround(bids): 2%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows significant depth in the YES side with a large ask at 1.00 (551 contracts) compared to the bid side with minimal sizes present. There are no NO offers noted.

Recent prints: The market has not seen notable trade activity in the last 24 hours, indicating potential absence of speculative trading interest.

External context: - TSA screening numbers have consistently remained above key thresholds in recent weeks—supporting the high probability of achieving the 1.9 million average. (Source: TSA data) - Seasonal travel trends indicate increased personnel mobility ahead of the holidays, likely boosting TSA screening figures. (Source: FAA) - Recent economic data shows robust consumer activity, suggesting continued growth in travel demand. (Source: BEA)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.

Rationale: Based on recent TSA screening trends and seasonal adjustments, the likelihood of surpassing the average threshold remains high, despite current high market pricing.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy YES

Entry: 1.00 | Invalid/Stop: 0.98 | Target: 1.10
Thesis: High probability of exceeding 1.9 million screenings due to strong travel trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Missed economic indicators (like jobs data), sudden regulatory changes affecting air travel.

Idea 2 — Observe NO at 0.02

Entry: N/A | Invalid/Stop: N/A | Target: N/A
Thesis: Monitor possibilities for a price swing; currently low returns in NO indicate no substantial market interest.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected decline in travel flows; regulatory constraints on air travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00 ET
Known release windows: TSA screening data typically released Mondays.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Screening Data — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  2. FAA Air Traffic Data — FAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  3. BEA Economic Data Release — bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  4. Current Economic Indicators — FRED — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  5. Labor Market Overview — BLS — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  6. CME Group Economic Calendar — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  7. National Weather Service Travel Forecasts — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  8. Federal Reserve Economic Projections — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  9. Consumer Trends Report — The Economist — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
  10. Travel and Tourism Impact Analysis — World Bank — Accessed: 2023-10-22 12:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:26:30.115770

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