KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.15
Will more than 2150000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.15 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.96 $0.98 $1.0 4.0¢ 96.08%
NO $0.0 $0.04 $0.04 4.0¢ 4.0%
Overround (asks): 4.0% Underround (bids): 4.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.96 711 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.04 711
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.98 0.0 711
$0.04 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.960 – 1.000
Band Width0.040

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.92
NO Edge (ticks)-0.08
Vig (bps/h)3

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity67879
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0682.56
0.2520.0682.56
0.5020.0682.56
0.7520.0682.56
0.9520.0682.56
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.15 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

Related Markets

2.8 million
$0.02
2.75 million
$0.02
2.7 million
$0.03
2.65 million
$0.03
2.55 million
$0.03
2.6 million
$0.05
2.5 million
$0.06
2.45 million
$0.28
2.4 million
$0.89
2.35 million
$1.0
2.3 million
$1.0
2.25 million
$1.0
2.2 million
$1.0
2.1 million
$1.0
2.05 million
$1.0
2 million
$1.0
1.95 million
$1.0
1.9 million
$1.0
1.85 million
$1.0
1.8 million
$1.0

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,150,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 98% | YES/NO spreads: 4¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 4.0% | Underround (bids): 4.0%.

Orderbook skew: The order book exhibits a strong skew towards the YES side with a notable ask at $1.00 for 711 units and a low bid on the NO side at $0.04.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported in the last 24 hours.

External context: - Recent TSA data indicates increased travel for the upcoming holiday season, historically resulting in higher screening numbers (TSA). - Current average weekly screenings have consistently surpassed the 2.15 million threshold over the last month (TSA). - Economic stability and consumer confidence, as reported by the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, support higher travel demand (Bloomberg).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.
Rationale: Recent trends in TSA screening show a strong probability of consistently exceeding the 2.15 million threshold, supported by positive travel behavioral patterns and historical data.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES
Entry: $0.96 | Invalid/Stop: $0.90 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Strong historical data suggests high likelihood of exceeding screening thresholds this week.
Key risks/catalysts: Possible travel disruptions, economic downturns, sudden changes in consumer behavior.

Idea 2 — Short NO
Entry: $0.04 | Invalid/Stop: $0.02 | Target: $0.00
Thesis: Unlikely to see screenings fall short given recent trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Political/economic developments affecting air travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-29 03:59 UTC (11:59 PM ET).
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET).
Known release windows: Upcoming TSA weekly screening report; typically released on Mondays.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Screening Data — TSA — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  2. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index — Bloomberg — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  3. Federal Aviation Administration — FAA — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  4. Bureau of Transportation Statistics — BTS — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  5. U.S. Travel Association Report — USTA — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — NOAA — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  7. Economic Indicators — BLS — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  8. Federal Reserve Economic Data — FRED — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  9. Department of Transportation — DOT — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
  10. Current Economic Conditions — BEA — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:26 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:26:58.773557

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →