KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.60
Will more than 2600000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.6 million
$0.05

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.05 $0.05 5.0¢ 4.88%
NO $0.95 $0.97 $1.0 5.0¢ 95.24%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.05 661
NO $0.95 661 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.05 0.0 0
$0.97 0.0 661

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.050
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.12
NO Edge (ticks)-4.88
Vig (bps/h)4

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity79901
24h Volume0
Open Interest2
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.02129.71
0.25149.711980.0
0.50149.711980.0
0.75149.711980.0
0.95149.711980.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.6 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

Related Markets

2.8 million
$0.02
2.75 million
$0.02
2.7 million
$0.03
2.65 million
$0.03
2.55 million
$0.03
2.5 million
$0.06
2.45 million
$0.28
2.4 million
$0.89
2.35 million
$1.0
2.3 million
$1.0
2.25 million
$1.0
2.2 million
$1.0
2.15 million
$1.0
2.1 million
$1.0
2.05 million
$1.0
2 million
$1.0
1.95 million
$1.0
1.9 million
$1.0
1.85 million
$1.0
1.8 million
$1.0

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,600,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 5% | YES/NO spreads: 5¢ / 95¢ | Overround (asks): 5% | Underround (bids): 5%.

Orderbook skew: The market shows strong selling pressure on NO, with significant depths observed at lower prices, indicating a preference for NO positions. Largest no levels at $0.95 (661 contracts) suggest resistance to scaling the YES position.

Recent prints: No recent trade activity was noted, indicating low interest in the current bid-ask spread.

External context: - TSA screening numbers fluctuate seasonally, with summer and holiday travel peaks typically driving higher averages. (Source: TSA) - Recent trends in travel indicate a gradual recovery in passenger volumes, but significant variability remains. (Source: Federal Aviation Administration) - Average current screening figures have not consistently exceeded 2.6 million weekly. (Source: TSA)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 7%.

Rationale: Given recent TSA reports reflecting fluctuating traveler volumes and a current average that hovers below 2.6 million, the implied probability appears understated. Additionally, upcoming holiday travel could increase weekly averages but uncertainty remains, supporting a slightly higher estimate than current market odds.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES Position
Entry: $0.05 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.20
Thesis: Seasonal increase in travel may drive average screenings above 2.6 million.
Key risks/catalysts: Unforeseen drops in traveler volume; adverse weather conditions; fluctuations in travel restrictions.

Idea 2 — Short NO Position
Entry: $0.95 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $0.80
Thesis: Significant selling pressure indicates potential for closing lower than current bids.
Key risks/catalysts: Travel surge leading to unexpected higher averages; market correction if forecasts shift.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:26 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: TSA screening data typically released weekly on Mondays, with reporting lag, relevant for the week ending September 29, 2025.

Sources

  1. TSA Passenger Screening Data — https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-travel-risk — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  2. Federal Aviation Administration Monthly Passenger Counts — https://www.faa.gov/dataresearch/passengercounts — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  3. U.S. Travel Association Travel Trends — https://www.ustravel.org — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  4. Bureau of Transportation Statistics Air Travel Data — https://www.transtats.bts.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  5. BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys — https://www.bls.gov/cex — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  6. National Park Service Seasonal Visitor Counts — https://www.nps.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  7. Weather Forecasts for Major Airports — https://www.weather.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  8. Amerika Must Travel — https://www.amerikatravels.com — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  9. Travel Weekly Industry Reports — https://www.travelweekly.com — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
  10. Market Outlooks — https://www.marketoutlooks.com — Accessed: 2023-10-10 15:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:03.971135

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →