KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.50
Will more than 2500000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.5 million
$0.06

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.03 $0.04 $0.06 3.0¢ 4.5%
NO $0.94 $0.95 $0.97 3.0¢ 95.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.03 500 $0.06 0
NO $0.94 0 $0.97 500
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.04 0.0 2901
$0.95 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.030 – 0.060
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)2

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.14
ΔSpread (¢) -24.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.04
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity1934109
24h Volume451
Open Interest573
OI Turnover (24h)0.79
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0557.012318.02
0.25122.372292.66
0.50259.972105.06
0.75259.972105.06
0.952365.030.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.5 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,500,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 14.5% | YES/NO spreads: 19¢ / 25¢ | Overround(asks): 19.0% | Underround(bids): 19.0%

Orderbook skew: Significant depth at lower price levels for YES, with notable sizes at $0.01 (1,201 contracts) and $0.02 (1,000 contracts). Sellers have larger amounts at higher levels, indicating a potentially bullish bias in market pricing.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed in the last 24 hours.

External context: - TSA screening data indicates fluctuations in travel patterns, with pre-pandemic levels generally around 2.5 million during peak seasons (TSA). - Recent trends in travel show gradual recovery post-COVID, influenced by holiday travel expectations and vaccination rates (CDC). - Current flight schedules remain volatile, impacting airport traffic dynamics (FAA). - Labor dynamics in the service industry, including TSA personnel levels, may affect operational capacity (BLS).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 10%

Rationale: Despite the TSA screening numbers trending upward, current data shows insufficient momentum to exceed the 2.5 million threshold consistently, factoring in potential volatile travel patterns and staffing shortages.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO - Entry: $0.95 - Invalid/Stop: $1.00 - Target: $0.76 - Thesis: Expectations for a consistent drop in screenings relative to historical data due to seasonal variations. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected increases in travel demand, shifts in public health guidelines, large holiday travel.

Idea 2 — Short YES - Entry: $0.24 - Invalid/Stop: $0.30 - Target: $0.05 - Thesis: Current market positioning is overly optimistic about surpassing the screening threshold. - Key risks/catalysts: Further recovery in air travel, prolonged seasonal trends unnoticed by the market.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26 ET.

Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00 ET.

Known release windows: TSA's weekly screening report, typically released each Monday.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Travel Numbers — TSA.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  2. CDC Guidance on Travel — CDC.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  3. FAA Traffic Reports — FAA.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  4. BLS Employment Statistics — BLS.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  5. Current State of Air Travel — Bloomberg.com, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  6. Travel Demand Recovery Insights — IATA.org, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  7. Market Analysis Reports — Statista.com, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  8. Transportation Economic Trends — BEA.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  9. Recent Trends in Aviation — FAA.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  10. Impact of Labor Dynamics — BLS.gov, Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:12.675129

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