KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.40
Will more than 2400000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.4 million
$0.89

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.82 $0.85 $0.89 7.0¢ 85.5%
NO $0.11 $0.14 $0.18 7.0¢ 14.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.82 0 $0.89 0
NO $0.11 0 $0.18 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.85 0.0 0
$0.14 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.820 – 0.890
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)6

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) -20.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.09
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity2308361
24h Volume543
Open Interest741
OI Turnover (24h)0.73
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05125.01840.58
0.25126.01714.58
0.50781.021409.56
0.751840.58225.0
0.951840.580.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.4 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,400,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 87.5% | YES/NO spreads: 25¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 25% | Underround (bids): 25%.

Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant imbalance favoring the YES side, with notable liquidity at the YES levels, particularly at the 50¢ mark (700 contracts), while there are no bids for the NO side.

Recent prints: There has been no notable trade activity in the recent sample, suggesting a lack of engagement in the NO position.

External context: - TSA screening data has shown a consistent upward trend in travel volumes as pandemic restrictions ease (TSA). - Recent travel warnings and increased holiday travel could further influence screening numbers (BLS). - Current economic indicators suggest an uptick in consumer confidence, correlated with higher air travel rates (BEA). - The forecasted holiday travel season is expected to bring additional traffic, making it likely to meet or exceed prior averages (NOAA).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 85%.

Rationale: Given the consistent upward trend in TSA screening data aligned with recent travel forecasts and improved consumer confidence, the probability estimate is slightly below the market's implied expectation based on liquidity and historical averages.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES Position
Entry: $0.85 | Invalid/Stop: $0.70 | Target: $1.10
Thesis: Current trends indicate strong growth in travel, suggesting average screenings will exceed 2.4 million.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected travel restrictions, significant economic downturn, adverse weather conditions near the expiration date.

Idea 2 — Short NO Position
Entry: $0.05 | Invalid/Stop: $0.15 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: Minimal likelihood of average screenings falling below the threshold given recent trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Major flight cancellations, or a significant decrease in traveler turnout due to unforeseen events (e.g., natural disasters).

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00
Known release windows: Weekly TSA screening data releases every Tuesday at 09:00 ET.

Sources

  1. TSA - Passenger Screening Statistics — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Travel and Leisure Employment Reports — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  3. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - Consumer Spending Data — BEA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - Weather Forecasts and Travel Impact Studies — NOAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  5. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - Economic Indicators — FRED.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  6. Transportation Security Administration - Travel Trends — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  7. U.S. Department of Transportation - Airline Traffic Reports — DOT.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  8. Airlines for America - Air Travel Demand Reports — AirlinesforAmerica.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  9. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - Air Traffic Forecasts — FAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
  10. Economic Policy Institute - Labor Market Analysis — epi.org — Accessed: 2023-10-22 16:26 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:26:59.946728

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