KXTSAW-25SEP28-A1.95
Will more than 1950000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
1.95 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.02%
NO $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 2.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.98 551 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.02 551
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.99 0.0 551
$0.02 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.980 – 1.000
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.98
NO Edge (ticks)-0.02
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66232
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0539.98
0.2520.0539.98
0.5020.0539.98
0.7520.0539.98
0.9520.0539.98
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.95 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 1,950,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 99% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.

Orderbook skew: The order book exhibits a strong bias towards "YES" with a notable size for bids at $0.98 from 551 contracts and a considerable amount of liquidity at $199,102, indicating confidence in a positive resolution.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity has been reported within the last 24 hours.

External context: - Recent TSA screening levels have exceeded 1.95 million, aligned with pre-pandemic benchmarks. (Source: TSA) - Travel demand, driven by easing COVID-19 restrictions, continues to rise as the summer season concludes. (Source: Airlines for America) - Economic indicators suggest strong consumer spending, contributing to increased flight bookings and subsequent TSA screenings. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) - Inflationary pressures may impact traveler numbers, but high demand persists for fall travel. (Source: Federal Reserve)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 97%.

Rationale: The substantial implied probability reflects market confidence supported by consistent increases in TSA screenings, despite broader economic pressures.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long P(YES) - Entry: $0.99 - Invalid/Stop: $0.90 - Target: $1.05 - Thesis: Screening levels are expected to remain robust given travel trends. - Key risks/catalysts: Economic downturn affecting travel; unexpected surge in cancellations.

Idea 2 — Fade P(NO) - Entry: $0.02 - Invalid/Stop: $0.01 - Target: $0.05 - Thesis: Market underestimates the consistent demand for air travel. - Key risks/catalysts: Sudden external events (e.g., natural disasters) impacting travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26 ET.

Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00 ET.

Known release windows: TSA weekly screening data is typically released every Monday.

Sources

  1. TSA: Recent Screening Data — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  2. Airlines for America: Travel Demand Trends — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  3. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Consumer Spending Data — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  4. Federal Reserve: Overview of Economic Indicators — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  5. FRED: Historical TSA Screening Data — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  6. NOAA: Weather Considerations for Travel — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  7. CME: Economic Calendar — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  8. Reuters: Economic Impact on Travel — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  9. Bloomberg: Travel Trends Post COVID-19 — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  10. MarketWatch: Travel Industry Outlook — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:26:27.122221

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