KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.05
Will more than 2050000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.05 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.97 $0.98 $1.0 3.0¢ 97.04%
NO $0.0 $0.03 $0.03 3.0¢ 3.0%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.97 626 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.03 626
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.98 0.0 626
$0.03 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.970 – 1.000
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.96
NO Edge (ticks)-0.04
Vig (bps/h)2

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66763
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0607.22
0.2520.0607.22
0.5020.0607.22
0.7520.0607.22
0.9520.0607.22
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.05 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

Related Markets

2.8 million
$0.02
2.75 million
$0.02
2.7 million
$0.03
2.65 million
$0.03
2.55 million
$0.03
2.6 million
$0.05
2.5 million
$0.06
2.45 million
$0.28
2.4 million
$0.89
2.35 million
$1.0
2.3 million
$1.0
2.25 million
$1.0
2.2 million
$1.0
2.15 million
$1.0
2.1 million
$1.0
2 million
$1.0
1.95 million
$1.0
1.9 million
$1.0
1.85 million
$1.0
1.8 million
$1.0

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,050,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 98.5% | YES/NO spreads: 3¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 3% | Underround (bids): 3%.

Orderbook skew: The order book indicates a significant bias towards the "YES" position, with substantial sizes at the lowest price level. The highest bid for "YES" is $0.97 with a depth of 626 contracts, showing strong demand.

Recent prints: There has been no recent flow; volume in the last 24 hours is zero.

External context: - TSA screenings have consistently surpassed 2 million during peak travel periods, with the latest data showing an upward trend in traveler numbers (TSA Data Report). - Recent seasonal analysis indicates that travel will likely peak due to upcoming holidays (Federal Aviation Administration Forecast). - Economic indicators also show a recovery in consumer confidence, supporting increased travel (Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.

Rationale: Given historical trends and current economic indicators, it is likely that weekly TSA average screenings will exceed the 2.05 million mark, despite any potential anomalies.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES

  • Entry: $0.97
  • Invalid/Stop: $0.90
  • Target: $1.05

Thesis: Strong seasonal travel patterns suggest elevated TSA screening numbers.

Key risks/catalysts: - Unexpected weather events could reduce travel. - Any significant travel disruptions (e.g., security events) could impact numbers.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:26 ET.

Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, 14:00 ET.

Known release windows: TSA weekly data release typically occurs on Mondays.

Sources

  1. TSA Data Report — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  2. Federal Aviation Administration Forecast — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  3. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  4. Bureau of Transportation Statistics — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  5. U.S. Travel Association — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  6. National Weather Service — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  7. Transportation Security Administration — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  8. Federal Reserve Economic Data — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  9. International Air Transport Association — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  10. National Travel and Tourism Office — URL — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:00.759520

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →